UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Matchup Overview

This middleweight bout features two primarily striking-based fighters with contrasting styles. Chris Curtis (31-11-0, 1 NC) brings his orthodox stance and counter-striking approach against Roman Kopylov (13-3-0), a southpaw with impressive finishing power.

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Curtis: 5.76 strikes/min, 51% accuracy, 52% defense
• Kopylov: 4.33 strikes/min, 54% accuracy, 58% defense

Curtis has the higher volume but Kopylov is slightly more accurate and defensively sound. Curtis absorbs more strikes (6.16/min) compared to Kopylov (4.06/min), a concerning differential.

Grappling Metrics

• Curtis: 0.0 TD/15min, 82% TD defense
• Kopylov: 1.2 TD/15min, 87% TD defense

Neither fighter relies heavily on wrestling, though Kopylov has shown more willingness to mix in takedowns. Both have solid takedown defense.

Recent Form Analysis

Chris Curtis

• Lost competitive decision to Brendan Allen (5 rounds)
• Won split decision over Barriault
• NC vs Imavov (accidental clash)
• Lost decision to Gastelum
• KO win over Buckley

Curtis has faced high-level competition but shown some inconsistency, going 1-2-1 NC in his last four. His cardio held up well in the recent 5-round fight despite the loss.

Roman Kopylov

• Won decision over Almeida
• Submission loss to Hernandez
• Two consecutive KO/TKO wins (Fremd, Ribeiro)
• Impressive KO of Soriano

Kopylov has shown improved striking and finishing ability, going 4-1 in his last five with three KO/TKO victories.

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

Curtis excels in close-range exchanges and counter-striking, while Kopylov prefers to work at middle distance with powerful kicks and straight punches. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup could favor Kopylov’s kicking game.

Phase Control

Both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing, though Kopylov has shown more willingness to mix in takedowns when needed. Curtis’s purely striking-based approach could become predictable.

Key Factors

1. Age and Wear: Curtis is 37 with significantly more fights
2. Stance Matchup: Kopylov’s southpaw style could pose problems
3. Power Advantage: Kopylov has shown more consistent finishing ability recently
4. Experience Level: Curtis has faced higher-level competition

Prediction

Kopylov by KO/TKO in Round 2 (65% confidence)

Rationale

While Curtis has more high-level experience, recent trends favor Kopylov. Curtis’s higher strike absorption rate and age-related durability concerns match poorly with Kopylov’s improved striking and finishing ability. The southpaw stance advantage and Curtis’s purely striking-based approach make him more predictable, giving Kopylov clear targets for his power shots.

Risk factors include Curtis’s veteran experience and proven durability in longer fights, but Kopylov’s recent form and more diverse attack paths should prove decisive.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Almeida: 4.12 strikes/min, 57% accuracy, 2.18 absorbed/min, 47% defense
• Alhassan: 3.62 strikes/min, 49% accuracy, 3.97 absorbed/min, 55% defense

Almeida shows superior volume and accuracy, though his defense is lower. His strike differential (+1.94) is significantly better than Alhassan’s (-0.35).

Grappling Metrics

• Almeida: Limited takedown attempts, 57% TD defense, 0.3 sub attempts/15min
• Alhassan: 0.88 TD/15min, 38% accuracy, 51% TD defense, 0.2 sub attempts/15min

Both fighters show limited grappling statistics, with neither demonstrating dominant wrestling credentials.

Physical Attributes

• Almeida: 6’1″, 74″ reach, Orthodox stance, 36 years old
• Alhassan: 5’10”, 73″ reach, Orthodox stance, 39 years old

Almeida holds height (+3″) and slight reach (+1″) advantages.

Recent Form Analysis

Cesar Almeida

1. WIN vs Potieria – Showed technical striking and control over 3 rounds
2. LOSS vs Kopylov – Close split decision loss showcasing durability
3. WIN vs Budka – Impressive TKO showing finishing ability
4. WIN vs Fernando (DWCS) – Dominant decision showing well-rounded skills

Trend shows solid striking fundamentals and improving fight IQ.

Abdul Razak Alhassan

1. NC vs Brundage – Too brief to assess
2. LOSS vs Pyfer – Submitted in R2 showing grappling vulnerability
3. WIN vs Ribeiro – Explosive KO win demonstrating power
4. LOSS vs Buckley – Struggled with pressure and volume

Recent form shows declining consistency but maintains finishing power.

Style Matchup Analysis

Almeida’s technical striking and superior reach should allow him to control distance against Alhassan’s explosive but sometimes wild attacks. Alhassan’s power remains dangerous early, but his effectiveness drops significantly after the first round.

Key factors:

• Almeida’s superior strike differential and accuracy
• Alhassan’s declining durability and cardio issues
• Physical advantages favoring Almeida 4. Age and mileage difference

Fight Prediction

Almeida should be able to use his reach and technical superiority to avoid Alhassan’s power shots while accumulating damage at range. Expect Almeida to stay disciplined early, weather any initial aggression, then take over as Alhassan tires.

Prediction: Cesar Almeida via Decision (75% confidence)

The most likely path to victory is Almeida using superior footwork and range management to outpoint Alhassan over three rounds. Primary risk factor is Alhassan’s early power, which could change the fight instantly if he lands clean.