UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Fight Overview

This middleweight bout features DWCS graduate Marco Tulio (12-1) against Ihor Potieria (20-7), who is making his middleweight debut after a challenging run at light heavyweight.

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed per Min: Potieria 4.57 vs Tulio 4.42 (slight edge to Potieria)
• Striking Accuracy: Tulio 51% vs Potieria 50% (marginal edge to Tulio)
• Strikes Absorbed per Min: Tulio 2.78 vs Potieria 4.72 (significant defensive advantage for Tulio)
• Striking Defense: Tulio 58% vs Potieria 50% (clear edge to Tulio)

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns per 15 min: Tulio 1.33 vs Potieria 0.77
• Takedown Accuracy: Tulio 20% vs Potieria 18%
• Takedown Defense: Potieria 66% vs Tulio 0%
• Submission Attempts: Tulio 0.7 vs Potieria 0.0

Physical Comparison

• Height: Potieria +3 inches (6’3″ vs 6’0″)
• Reach: Potieria +1 inch (75″ vs 74″)
• Age: Potieria 28 vs Tulio 30

Recent Form Analysis

Marco Tulio

• Won last two fights in DWCS
• Shows power with KO/TKO victory
• Limited UFC-level experience
• Undefeated in recent outings
• Strong defensive metrics

Ihor Potieria

• Lost 4 of last 6 fights
• Multiple KO/TKO losses
• Defensive vulnerabilities apparent
• Moving down from light heavyweight
• Inconsistent performances

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Tulio shows better defensive awareness
• Potieria more vulnerable to strikes
• Both have finishing ability
• Tulio’s tighter defense likely key factor

Grappling Scenarios

• Limited grappling from both fighters
• Tulio shows more submission attempts
• Potieria’s takedown defense could be factor
• Likely to remain standing

Key Factors

1. Tulio’s superior striking defense
2. Potieria’s recent knockout losses
3. Weight class adjustment for Potieria
4. Experience differential favors Potieria
5. Defensive metrics strongly favor Tulio

Risk Factors

1. Tulio’s limited UFC experience
2. Potieria’s size advantage
3. Unknown impact of weight cut for Potieria

Prediction

Marco Tulio by KO/TKO in Round 2

Confidence: 75%

Rationale: Tulio’s superior defensive metrics and Potieria’s recent vulnerability to strikes make this an advantageous matchup for him. Potieria’s move down to middleweight adds uncertainty, but his defensive lapses are likely to remain an issue. Tulio’s power, shown in DWCS, combined with Potieria’s tendency to absorb significant damage, suggests a finishing opportunity will present itself in the middle rounds.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Soriano: 4.89 strikes/min, 53% accuracy, 3.88 absorbed, 48% defense
• Medic: 5.51 strikes/min, 60% accuracy, 3.18 absorbed, 58% defense
• Clear advantage to Medic in all striking categories

Grappling Metrics

• Soriano: 1.48 TD/15min, 56% accuracy, 37% defense
• Medic: 0.38 TD/15min, 50% accuracy, 55% defense
• Soriano more active in takedowns but vulnerable defensively

Physical Attributes

• Height: Medic +2 inches (6’1″ vs 5’11”)
• Reach: Soriano +1 inch (72″ vs 71″)
• Both southpaw stance
• Both similar age (Medic 31, Soriano 32)

Recent Form Analysis

Soriano’s Last 3:

• WIN vs Baeza (Decision) – Strong wrestling performance, 5 takedowns
• LOSS vs Stoltzfus (Sub R2) – Submission vulnerability exposed
• LOSS vs Kopylov (TKO R2) – Striking defense issues apparent

Medic’s Last 3:

• WIN vs Means (TKO R1) – Explosive striking victory
• LOSS vs Orolbai – (Sub R2) Grappling weakness exposed
• WIN vs Semelsberger (TKO R3) – Demonstrated striking power and cardio

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Phase:

• Medic has superior technical striking with better accuracy
• Both have finishing power but Medic more efficient
• Medic’s height advantage favors his striking at range

Grappling Phase:

• Soriano more likely to initiate wrestling
• Both have shown submission vulnerability
• Wrestling could be key differentiator for Soriano

Key Factors

1. Both fighters vulnerable to submissions
2. Medic’s superior striking technique and defense
3. Soriano’s wrestling advantage could be decisive
4. Both fighters capable of early finishes

Risk Factors

1. Both fighters coming off recent submission losses
2. Cardio questions if fight goes late
3. Southpaw vs southpaw dynamics could affect usual patterns

Prediction

Medic by TKO Round 2

Rationale: While Soriano has the wrestling advantage, Medic’s superior striking metrics and recent form suggest he’ll be able to keep the fight standing where he has clear advantages. Both fighters have shown vulnerability to submissions, but in the striking exchanges, Medic’s superior accuracy and defense should allow him to find openings for his power shots.

Confidence: 70%

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Fighter Stats

Christian Rodriguez (11-2-0)

• Age: 27 – Height: 5’7″
• Weight: 145 lbs
• Reach: 71″
• Stance: Orthodox
• UFC Experience: 6 fights

Austin Bashi (13-0-0)

• Age: 23
• Height: 5’6″
• Weight: 145 lbs
• Reach: 70″
• Stance: Orthodox
• UFC Experience: UFC Debut

Statistical Comparison

Striking

Rodriguez shows more proven volume with 3.65 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Bashi’s 2.67, though Bashi has slightly better accuracy (52% vs 47%). Rodriguez also demonstrates superior striking defense at 58% compared to Bashi’s 47%.

Grappling

Bashi shows exceptional wrestling credentials with 18.18 takedowns per 15 minutes and 66% accuracy, significantly higher than Rodriguez’s 1.07 takedowns. However, Rodriguez has proven UFC-level takedown defense at 65%.

Recent Form Analysis

Christian Rodriguez

• Recent loss to Julian Erosa by submission (R1)
• Strong win over Isaac Dulgarian by split decision
• Impressive victories over prospects Cameron Saaiman and Raul Rosas Jr.
• Shows well-rounded skill set with both striking and grappling ability
• Demonstrated good cardio in multiple 3-round fights

Austin Bashi

• Undefeated record of 13-0
• Making UFC debut
• Limited high-level competition exposure
• Strong regional scene performance but untested at UFC level

Style Matchup Analysis

This fight presents an interesting clash between Rodriguez’s proven UFC-level well-rounded game and Bashi’s aggressive wrestling-heavy approach. Rodriguez’s experience against high-level competition and proven takedown defense will be critical factors.

Key Factors

1. Rodriguez’s UFC experience vs Bashi’s debut pressure
2. Striking advantage favors Rodriguez in terms of proven output
3. Bashi’s wrestling credentials vs Rodriguez’s takedown defense
4. Rodriguez’s proven cardio over three rounds
5. Level of competition disparity

Risk Factors

1. Bashi’s undefeated record indicates potential upside
2. Rodriguez’s recent submission loss shows vulnerability
3. Unknown ceiling for Bashi at UFC level

Detailed Fight Projection

Rodriguez via unanimous decision with a 72% confidence rating.

Rodriguez should be able to use his experience and proven striking skills to control the distance and pace of the fight. While Bashi’s wrestling credentials are impressive, Rodriguez has shown strong takedown defense against UFC-caliber opposition. Rodriguez’s ability to handle dynamic wrestlers like Cameron Saaiman suggests he can manage Bashi’s wrestling attack.

The fight is likely to be competitive early as Bashi pushes for takedowns, but Rodriguez’s experience and cardio should allow him to pull away in the later rounds. Expect Rodriguez to use his reach advantage and higher striking output to score points while defending takedowns effectively.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Welterweight Bout

Executive Summary

A welterweight clash between veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8-0) and the rising Carlston Harris (19-6-0). This matchup pits Ponzinibbio’s high-volume striking against Harris’s powerful, methodical approach.

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

Metric	Ponzinibbio	Harris
Strikes Landed/Min	4.74	3.18
Striking Accuracy	41%	49%
Strikes Absorbed/Min	4.55	2.66
Striking Defense	61%	52%

Grappling Metrics

Metric	Ponzinibbio	Harris
Takedowns/15 Min	0.59	1.97
Takedown Accuracy	32%	29%
Takedown Defense	66%	55%
Submission Attempts/15 Min	0.0	0.8

Physical Comparisons

• Height: Both fighters stand at 6’0″
• Reach: Harris holds a 3″ advantage (76″ vs 73″)
• Age: Harris 37, Ponzinibbio 38
• Stance: Both orthodox

Recent Form Analysis

Santiago Ponzinibbio

• Currently on a 2-fight losing streak
• 1-4 in last five fights
• Recent losses:
  • Split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov (July 2024)
  • KO loss to Kevin Holland (April 2023)
  • Only recent win: KO victory over Alex Morono (Dec 2022)
• Shows declining durability in recent performances
• Still maintains dangerous striking

Carlston Harris

• 2-1 in last three fights
• Recent performances:
  • KO loss to Khaos Williams (May 2024)
  • Submission win over Jeremiah Wells (Aug 2023)
  • Decision win over Jared Gooden (March 2023)
• Demonstrates well-rounded skill set
• Shows finishing ability in both striking and grappling

Style Matchup Analysis

Ponzinibbio’s Advantages

• Higher striking volume
• More UFC experience
• Better defensive wrestling
• Technical boxing combinations
• Proven cardio over 5 rounds

Harris’s Advantages

• Superior reach
• More diverse finishing ability
• Better striking accuracy
• Higher takedown rate
• Submission threat

Technical Analysis

Standing Phase

• Ponzinibbio will need to overcome the reach disadvantage with footwork
• Harris’s power could be significant given Ponzinibbio’s recent KO loss
• Volume vs accuracy dynamic will be crucial
• Edge to Harris in the power exchanges

Clinch Phase

• Harris’s wrestling could be effective against the cage
• Ponzinibbio’s takedown defense will be tested
• Both fighters comfortable in dirty boxing

Ground Phase

• Harris holds a clear submission advantage
• Ponzinibbio’s takedown defense likely keeps it standing
• Ground exchanges could favor Harris if fight goes there

Path to Victory

For Ponzinibbio

1. Maintain high striking volume
2. Use experience to control fight rhythm
3. Defend takedowns to keep it standing
4. Work behind jab to close distance
5. Target legs to slow Harris down

For Harris

1. Utilize reach advantage
2. Look for power counters
3. Mix in takedown threats
4. Target Ponzinibbio’s declining chin
5. Control distance with jab

Prediction

Winner: Carlston Harris
Method: TKO
Round: 2
Confidence: 65%

Rationale

Harris’s combination of power striking, reach advantage, and more diverse skill set matches up well against Ponzinibbio’s recent decline in durability. While Ponzinibbio’s experience and volume striking keep this from being a higher confidence pick, Harris’s ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground provides multiple paths to victory.

Key Factors

1. Harris’s 3-inch reach advantage will be significant
2. Ponzinibbio’s declining durability shown in recent losses
3. Harris’s more diverse finishing ability
4. Stylistic matchup favors Harris’s power over Ponzinibbio’s volume

Risk Factors

1. Ponzinibbio’s extensive UFC experience
2. Harris’s own recent KO loss
3. Ponzinibbio’s ability to outwork opponents over distance

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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Parsons: 3.50 SLpM, 51% accuracy, 3.12 SApM, 55% defense
• Gustafsson: 4.56 SLpM, 77% accuracy, 3.12 SApM, 43% defense

Key Differential: Gustafsson shows higher volume and accuracy, but potentially concerning defense numbers.

Grappling Metrics

• Parsons: 3.53 TD/15min, 36% accuracy, 71% defense, 2.4 sub attempts/15min
• Gustafsson: 3.6 TD/15min, 66% accuracy, 100% defense, 0.0 sub attempts/15min

Key Differential: Parsons shows more submission threat, while Gustafsson has better takedown efficiency.

Physical Attributes

• Parsons: 5’11”, 71″ reach, Orthodox
• Gustafsson: 6’1″, 73″ reach, Orthodox
• Differential: Gustafsson has 2″ height and reach advantage

Recent Form Analysis

Preston Parsons (Last 3):

• Loss (UD) vs Oban Elliott – Struggled with striking exchanges
• Win (UD) vs Matthew Semelsberger – Strong grappling performance with 7 takedowns
• Loss (SD) vs Trevin Giles – Competitive fight showing improved striking

Andreas Gustafsson:

• Win (TKO) vs Pat Pytlik†
• Impressive finish but against lower-level competition
• Limited UFC data available for comprehensive analysis

Style Matchup Evaluation

Striking Phase:

• Gustafsson’s higher accuracy and volume suggests striking advantage
• Parsons historically vulnerable to power strikes (Rodriguez KO)
• Height/reach advantage favors Gustafsson at range

Grappling Phase:

• Parsons more likely to initiate grappling exchanges
• Gustafsson’s takedown defense untested at UFC level
• Parsons’ submission threats create phase-shifting opportunities

Key Factors

Technical Advantages:

• Gustafsson: Superior striking metrics, reach advantage
• Parsons: More diverse submission game, UFC-level experience

Risk Factors:

• Gustafsson’s UFC inexperience
• Parsons’ vulnerability to strikes
• Limited data on Gustafsson against high-level opposition

Prediction

Gustafsson to win via TKO in Round 2 (65% confidence).

Rationale:

• Superior striking metrics
• Physical advantages align with successful path to victory
• Parsons’ defensive vulnerabilities match Gustafsson’s offensive strengths
• Recent Parsons performances show continued striking defense issues

The key uncertainty is Gustafsson’s ability to translate regional success to UFC level, which affects confidence rating.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Moises: 2.39 SLpM / 40% accuracy / 4.14 absorbed / 54% defense
• Ogden: 3.07 SLpM / 48% accuracy / 3.46 absorbed / 57% defense
• Edge: Ogden has better striking efficiency and defense

Grappling Metrics

• Moises: 1.47 TD/15min / 35% accuracy / 55% defense / 1.3 sub attempts
• Ogden: 2.04 TD/15min / 30% accuracy / 100% defense / 0.8 sub attempts
• Edge: Mixed – Ogden has better TD defense, but Moises more submission-focused

Physical Attributes

• Height: Ogden +2 inches
• Reach: Ogden +2 inches
• Age: Moises -6 years
• Edge: Ogden has size advantages, Moises in athletic prime

Recent Form Analysis

Moises (Last 3)

• Loss vs Klein (Decision)
• Win vs Ramirez (KO R3)
• Loss vs Saint Denis (TKO R2)
  Pattern: Inconsistent results, mixing striking and grappling approaches

Ogden (Last 3)

• Win vs Radzhabov (Decision)
• Win vs Holobaugh (Decision)
• NC vs Motta (Originally loss, overturned)
  Pattern: Showing improvement, effective wrestling-based approach

Style Matchup Evaluation

Striking Phase

• Both fighters comfortable on feet
• Ogden has reach advantage and better defensive stats
• Moises more vulnerable to strikes but carries power
• Edge slightly to Ogden due to reach and defense

Grappling Phase

• Moises has higher-level submission threat
• Ogden’s perfect TD defense will be tested
• Clinch work likely critical
• Edge to Moises if fight hits ground

Key Factors

1. Ogden’s takedown defense vs Moises’ submission game
2. Distance management with reach differential
3. Cardio and pace – both have gone distance recently
4. Experience level disparity – Moises has faced higher level competition

Prediction

Moises by Submission, Round 2

Rationale:

Despite Ogden’s perfect TD defense, Moises has shown ability to find submissions against high-level opponents

Experience advantage in crucial moments

Pattern of catching opponents in transitions

Ogden likely to control early with reach, but Moises should find opening as fight progresses

Confidence: 65%

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Physical Advantages

• Height: Kareckaite +6″ (5’9″ vs 5’3″)
• Reach: Kareckaite +9″ (71″ vs 62″)
• Age: Comparable (26 vs 28)

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed/Min: Kareckaite +6.01 (7.9 vs 1.89)
• Striking Accuracy: Caliari +10% (52% vs 42%)
• Strikes Absorbed/Min: Caliari better (-3.74 differential)
• Strike Defense: Kareckaite +12% (43% vs 31%)

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns/15min: Caliari +5.32 (6.32 vs 1.0)
• Takedown Accuracy: Equal (66% both)
• Takedown Defense: Kareckaite +86% (86% vs 0%)
• Submission Attempts/15min: Caliari +6.3 (6.3 vs 0.0)

Recent Form Analysis

Kareckaite

• Lost unanimous decision to Dione Barbosa (UFC)
• Won split decision against Carli Judice (DWCS)
• Limited UFC experience but showed high striking volume

Caliari

• Won via submission against Corinne Laframboise (DWCS)
• Making UFC debut
• Strong grappling credentials with early submission win

Style Matchup Analysis

This fight presents a classic striker vs grappler matchup:

Kareckaite’s Advantages

• Significant height and reach advantage
• Higher striking volume
• Strong takedown defense
• More UFC-level experience

Caliari’s Advantages

• Superior grappling metrics
• Higher striking accuracy
• More aggressive submission game
• Momentum from DWCS win

Path to Victory Analysis

Kareckaite

• Use reach advantage to maintain distance
• Deploy high-volume striking
• Defend takedowns using superior TDD
• Work from range with jab and straight punches

Caliari

• Close distance aggressively
• Secure takedowns against the cage
• Work submission game from top position
• Weather early striking exchanges

Risk Factors

Kareckaite

• Coming off UFC loss
• May be hesitant after recent defeat
• Limited ground game shown

Caliari

• UFC debut pressure
• Significant height/reach disadvantage
• Unproven takedown defense
• Limited striking metrics

Prediction

Ernesta Kareckaite via Decision (75% confidence)

Rationale

The physical advantages and UFC experience should prove decisive. While Caliari shows promising grappling, Kareckaite’s takedown defense and striking volume present significant challenges. The height and reach differential will make it difficult for Caliari to close distance consistently.

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

1. Statistical Comparison

A. Striking Metrics

Metric	Jose Johnson	Felipe Bunes	Advantage
Strikes Landed/Min	2.22	5.25	Bunes
Striking Accuracy	57%	54%	Johnson
Strikes Absorbed/Min	1.64	8.72	Johnson
Striking Defense	52%	41%	Johnson

B. Grappling Metrics

Metric	Jose Johnson	Felipe Bunes	Advantage
Takedowns/15 Min	0.71	3.15	Bunes
Takedown Accuracy	60%	33%	Johnson
Takedown Defense	38%	0%	Johnson
Submission Attempts/15 Min	0.7	0.0	Johnson

C. Physical Attributes

Attribute	Jose Johnson	Felipe Bunes	Differential
Height	6’0″	5’7″	Johnson +3″
Reach	71″	69″	Johnson +2″
Age	29	35	Johnson -6 years
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox	Even

2. Recent Form Analysis

Jose Johnson

• Last Fight: Loss vs Asu Almabayev (Decision) – Flyweight debut
• Notable Win: Submission victory over Chad Anheliger
• Recent Record: 1-2 in UFC competition
• Performance Trends:
• Shows ability to finish fights when opportunities present
• Adapting to flyweight division
• Demonstrated submission skills against Anheliger
• Struggling against high-level competition

Felipe Bunes

• UFC Debut: Loss vs Joshua Van (KO/TKO)
• Performance Analysis:
• Showed aggressive striking volume
• Defensive vulnerabilities exposed
• Limited UFC experience to evaluate
• Demonstrated takedown ability but poor efficiency

3. Style Matchup Evaluation

Standing Range

• Johnson’s reach advantage critical for distance control
• Bunes’ higher volume vs Johnson’s better defense
• Counter-striking opportunities for Johnson
• Height difference impacts angle creation

Clinch Phase

• Johnson’s height could make him harder to control
• Bunes shows more wrestling initiative
• Johnson’s better takedown defense relevant

Ground Phase

• Johnson’s submission threat adds complexity
• Bunes’ unknown ground defense
• Johnson’s defensive grappling tested recently

4. Technical Matchup Analysis

Johnson’s Advantages

1. Superior reach and height for striking
2. Better defensive metrics
3. Submission threat
4. Youth advantage
5. More UFC experience

Bunes’ Advantages

1. Higher striking volume
2. More frequent takedown attempts
3. Aggressive pace
4. Recent flyweight experience

5. Key Factors

Critical Considerations

1. Johnson’s adaptation to flyweight
2. Bunes’ defensive vulnerabilities
3. Experience disparity
4. Physical advantages favoring Johnson

Risk Factors

1. Johnson’s recent flyweight loss
2. Bunes’ potential volume overwhelming
3. Unknown ceiling for Bunes
4. Johnson’s inconsistent performances

6. Prediction and Confidence Rating

Primary Prediction

• Winner: Jose Johnson
• Method: Decision
• Confidence: 65%

Path to Victory

Johnson projects to use his reach advantage and superior defensive skills to control distance and avoid Bunes’ high-volume attacks. His better takedown defense and submission threat add layers to his game that Bunes must respect. While Bunes shows aggressive output, his defensive vulnerabilities and Johnson’s counter-striking ability should be decisive factors.

Alternative Scenarios

• Johnson submission victory if Bunes overcommits to takedowns
• Bunes victory through overwhelming volume and pace
• Early stoppage less likely given both fighters’ durability

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Statistical Comparison

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Striking Metrics

• Gadzhiyasulov has superior striking efficiency (50% vs 41% accuracy)
• Gadzhiyasulov shows better defense, absorbing only 1.37 strikes per minute vs Lopes’ 4.07
• Both fighters have similar striking volume (3.3 vs 3.69 strikes per minute)
• Gadzhiyasulov demonstrates significantly better striking defense (67% vs 63%)

Grappling Metrics

• Gadzhiyasulov shows strong wrestling credentials (5.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, 91% accuracy)
• Lopes has perfect takedown defense but limited sample size
• Neither fighter shows significant submission threat (0.0 attempts per 15 minutes)

Physical Attributes

• Both fighters are equally matched in height (6’2″)
• Gadzhiyasulov has a slight reach advantage (75″ vs 74″)
• Both fighters are the same age (31)
• Both compete at their natural weight class of 205 lbs

Recent Form Analysis

Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

• Undefeated record (9-0)
• Most recent win via majority decision over Brendson Ribeiro
• Strong wrestling performance with 5 takedowns in last UFC fight
• Showed consistent control in DWCS victory
• Demonstrated ability to maintain pace over three rounds

Bruno Lopes

• Recent KO loss to Brendson Ribeiro (common opponent)
• Rebounded with KO victory in Contender Series
• Shows finishing ability but vulnerability to strikes
• 13-1 overall record indicates potential but recent setback is concerning

Style Matchup Evaluation

Striking Phase

• Gadzhiyasulov’s superior defense and accuracy suggest advantage in technical striking
• Lopes has shown more finishing power but also more vulnerability
• Gadzhiyasulov’s ability to avoid damage while landing effectively is crucial

Grappling Phase

• Clear advantage to Gadzhiyasulov in wrestling
• Lopes’ takedown defense untested against high-level wrestling
• Gadzhiyasulov’s control time likely to be significant factor

Key Factors

1. Wrestling Disparity
   • Gadzhiyasulov’s strong takedown game vs Lopes’ untested defense

   • Control time likely to favor Gadzhiyasulov

2. Common Opponent Analysis

   • Gadzhiyasulov defeated Brendson Ribeiro via decision
   • Lopes was stopped by Ribeiro in round 1

   • Direct comparison favors Gadzhiyasulov

3. Defensive Statistics

   • Gadzhiyasulov’s superior striking defense
   • Lower absorption rate indicates better defensive awareness

Prediction and Rationale

Gadzhiyasulov by Unanimous Decision

The combination of superior wrestling and more robust defensive statistics suggests Gadzhiyasulov will control where this fight takes place. His ability to mix striking with takedowns while maintaining strong defensive awareness should allow him to accumulate points while minimizing risk. While Lopes has shown finishing ability, his defensive vulnerabilities and struggles against similar competition make him the underdog in this matchup.

Risk Factors:

• Lopes’ knockout power
• Limited UFC-level sample size for both fighters
• Potential cardio questions in later rounds

Dudakova vs Kline Fight Analysis

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Dudakova leads in volume with 3.45 SLpM vs Kline’s 2.60
• Both have identical 48% striking accuracy
• Dudakova absorbs more strikes (3.77 vs 2.67)
• Kline shows better defense (55% vs 49%)

Grappling Metrics

• Dudakova more active with takedowns (2.63 vs 1.0 per 15min)
• Kline has better takedown accuracy (100% vs 36%)
• Dudakova slightly better takedown defense (50% vs 33%)
• Neither fighter shows significant submission threats

Physical Attributes

• Similar physical profiles
• Both orthodox stance
• Identical reach (67″)
• Slight height advantage to Kline (5’6″ vs 5’5″)
• Both relatively young (24 vs 25)

Recent Form Analysis

Dudakova

• Lost last fight via split decision to Sam Hughes
• Prior to that, two UFC wins:
• Decision win over Jinh Yu Frey
• Impressive R1 KO of Istela Nunes
• DWCS win showed wrestling-heavy approach

Kline

• Lost UFC debut to Jasudavicius
• Limited UFC experience
• Fought at flyweight in debut
• Moving down to natural strawweight class

Style Matchup Analysis

Dudakova brings a pressure-heavy wrestling approach with developing striking. Her takedown accuracy is low but she’s persistent. While she absorbs strikes, she’s shown durability and maintains a high pace.

Kline demonstrated better striking defense in her debut but struggled with takedown defense. Her 100% takedown accuracy is from a small sample size. The move down to strawweight should benefit her physically.

Key Factors

1. Dudakova’s wrestling pressure vs Kline’s takedown defense
2. Volume striking differential
3. Strawweight adjustment for Kline
4. Experience edge for Dudakova

Path to Victory

Dudakova: Pressure wrestling, chain takedown attempts, wear down Kline against the cage Kline: Defend takedowns early, utilize superior striking defense, establish jab

Prediction

Viktoriia Dudakova via Decision (High Confidence: 75%)

The combination of Dudakova’s wrestling pressure and higher striking volume should be the difference. While Kline shows promise, this is a tough stylistic matchup in her strawweight debut. Dudakova’s experience edge and proven ability to maintain a high pace over three rounds will likely be decisive.

Risk factors include Kline’s potential improvement at strawweight and Dudakova’s recent loss showing vulnerability to a similar style. However, Dudakova’s proven UFC-level success and more complete body of work make her the justified favorite.