UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed per Minute
  • Ulanbekov: 3.22
  • Carpenter: 4.56

  • Edge: Carpenter (+1.34)

• Striking Accuracy
  • Ulanbekov: 45%
  • Carpenter: 53%

  • Edge: Carpenter (+8%)

• Striking Defense
  • Ulanbekov: 51%
  • Carpenter: 60%
  • Edge: Carpenter (+9%)

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns per 15 Minutes
  • Ulanbekov: 3.71
  • Carpenter: 2.95

  • Edge: Ulanbekov (+0.76)

• Takedown Accuracy
  • Ulanbekov: 46%
  • Carpenter: 55%
  • Edge: Carpenter (+9%)

Physical Attributes

• Age: Ulanbekov (33) vs Carpenter (28)
• Height: Ulanbekov (5’7″) vs Carpenter (5’6″)
• Reach: Ulanbekov (70″) vs Carpenter (66″)
• Significant reach advantage for Ulanbekov (+4″)

Recent Form Analysis

Tagir Ulanbekov

• Last 3 fights: 2-1 – Strong recent performances with back-to-back submission wins
• Demonstrated improved striking in Durden fight
• Consistent grappling threat with multiple submission attempts per fight
• Only loss came to veteran Tim Elliott in competitive decision

Clayton Carpenter

• Undefeated at 8-0 (2-0 UFC)
• Two impressive submission victories in UFC
• Shows technical striking with high accuracy
• Limited UFC experience but dominant in recent performances
• DWCS victory showed well-rounded skillset

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Phase

• Carpenter has superior striking metrics but shorter reach
• Ulanbekov’s southpaw stance could present challenges
• Carpenter’s higher accuracy may be tested against longer opponent
• Both show improving striking but different approaches

Grappling Phase

• Both fighters regularly attempt submissions
• Ulanbekov has more UFC-level grappling experience
• Carpenter’s takedown defense untested at UFC level
• Ground exchanges likely to be competitive

Key Factors

1. Experience gap heavily favors Ulanbekov
2. Carpenter’s perfect record vs Ulanbekov’s proven UFC competition
3. Reach advantage critical for Ulanbekov’s striking game
4. Youth advantage for Carpenter could impact late-fight cardio

Risk Factors

1. Carpenter’s takedown defense unproven against high-level opposition
2. Ulanbekov’s age and potential decline
3. Limited data on Carpenter against elite competition

Prediction

After careful analysis of both fighters’ strengths, weaknesses, and recent performances, I predict Tagir Ulanbekov to win via Submission in Round 2.

Confidence: 65%

Rationale

1. Ulanbekov’s significant experience advantage against higher-level competition
2. Superior reach and proven grappling at UFC level
3. Recent submission victories show finishing ability
4. Carpenter’s takedown defense vulnerability could be exploited

The key to victory for Ulanbekov will be using his reach advantage to set up takedowns, where his proven submission game can be implemented. While Carpenter shows promise, the experience gap and physical advantages favor Ulanbekov in this matchup.

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Fighter Comparison

Physical Statistics

Performance Metrics

Statistical Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Turcios demonstrates significantly higher output with 4.63 strikes per minute compared to Sopaj’s 3.06
• While Sopaj shows better accuracy (52% vs 37%), Turcios’ volume makes up for the efficiency gap
• Turcios absorbs fewer strikes (3.34 vs 4.56 per minute)
• Defensive percentages are comparable with a slight edge to Turcios (55% vs 53%)

Grappling Assessment

• Sopaj shows superior wrestling credentials with higher takedown frequency (3.06 vs 0.89 per 15 minutes)
• Sopaj’s takedown accuracy is notably better at 75% compared to Turcios’ 25%
• Takedown defense is comparable between both fighters
• Turcios shows more submission activity with 0.5 attempts per 15 minutes while Sopaj has none recorded

Physical Advantages

• Turcios holds significant height advantage (3 inches)
• Critical reach advantage for Turcios (5 inches)
• Age advantage favors Sopaj (24 vs 31)
• No stance disadvantage as both are orthodox

Recent Form Analysis

Ricky Turcios

1. Loss vs Raul Rosas Jr. (SUB, R2)
   • Struggled with younger opponent’s grappling

   • Limited offensive output before submission

2. Win vs Kevin Natividad (Split Decision)

   • Showed effective volume striking

   • Successfully mixed in takedowns

3. Loss vs Aiemann Zahabi (Unanimous Decision)
   • Struggled to implement offensive gameplan
   • Lower than usual strike output
4. Win vs Brady Hiestand (Split Decision)
   • High-volume striking performance
   • Demonstrated ground skills with 2 takedowns

Benardo Sopaj

1. Loss vs Vinicius Oliveira (TKO, R3)
   • Started strong with wrestling
   • Showed defensive vulnerabilities in striking

Limited UFC data available for deeper analysis of Sopaj’s tendencies and patterns.

Style Matchup Analysis

Standing Range

• Turcios’ reach advantage should allow him to control distance
• Higher volume striking favors Turcios
• Sopaj must close distance effectively to implement wrestling

Clinch Phase

• Sopaj’s wrestling credentials suggest advantage in clinch
• Turcios’ height could help with defending takedowns
• Scrambling opportunities favor Turcios’ submission attempts

Ground Phase

• Sopaj’s top control likely stronger
• Turcios shows more submission activity
• Scrambling situations could favor either fighter

Technical Matchup Implications

Advantages for Turcios

1. Superior striking volume
2. Reach advantage for distance control
3. More UFC-level experience
4. Better defensive striking metrics

Advantages for Sopaj

1. Superior wrestling credentials
2. Better takedown accuracy
3. Youth advantage
4. More efficient striking when landing

Fight Prediction

Based on comprehensive analysis of available data, I predict:

• Winner: Ricky Turcios
• Method: Decision
• Confidence: 65%

Path to Victory – Turcios

1. Maintain distance using reach advantage
2. Outpoint Sopaj with volume striking
3. Defend takedowns using height/reach
4. Scramble when taken down
5. Keep high pace to test Sopaj’s cardio

Path to Victory – Sopaj

1. Close distance effectively
2. Secure takedowns against the fence
3. Maintain top control
4. Avoid wild exchanges
5. Control pace to preserve cardio

Risk Factors

For Turcios

• Vulnerability to wrestling
• Sometimes wild/unorthodox style can backfire
• Recent submission loss

For Sopaj

• Limited UFC experience
• Reach disadvantage
• Recent TKO loss showing striking defense issues

Additional Insights

• Cardio could be a deciding factor given Turcios’ pace
• Octagon control likely favors Turcios due to reach
• First two rounds crucial for Sopaj’s wrestling
• Third round likely favors Turcios’ conditioning

Final Strategic Assessment

The fight’s outcome will likely hinge on Turcios’ ability to maintain distance and Sopaj’s success in closing it. Turcios’ experience and physical advantages should allow him to implement his gameplan more effectively over three rounds, leading to a decision victory through superior volume striking and defensive wrestling.

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Nakamura: 3.53 Strikes Landed per min (54% acc) / 1.38 Strikes Absorbed per min(67% def)
• Gafurov: 3.03 Strikes Landed per min(47% acc) / 2.25 trikes Absorbed per min(50% def)
  Clear advantage to Nakamura in both offensive efficiency and defensive ability

Grappling Metrics

• Nakamura: 3.72 Takedowns/15min (90% acc) / 100% Takedown defense
• Gafurov: 1.95 Takedowns/15min (27% acc) / 68% Takedown defense
  Significant advantage to Nakamura in wrestling efficiency

Physical Attributes

• Both fighters are 5’7″ with 68″ reach
• Nakamura (29) vs Gafurov (28)
• Both southpaw stance
  No significant physical advantages for either fighter

Recent Form Analysis

Rinya Nakamura

• Undefeated at 9-0 – Strong decision victories over Carlos Vera and Fernie Garcia
• Quick KO of Toshiomi Kazama
• Perfect takedown defense and high-efficiency wrestling
• Demonstrated finishing ability with both strikes and submissions

Muin Gafurov

• 1-3 in last four fights
• Recent win over Kyung Ho Kang showed improved striking
• Submission loss to Said Nurmagomedov
• Struggled with takedown defense against superior grapplers
• Shows vulnerability to both striking and grappling attacks

Style Matchup Evaluation

Striking Dynamics

• Nakamura’s superior striking defense and accuracy should give him an edge in exchanges
• Both fighters southpaw eliminates traditional stance advantages
• Nakamura’s power advantage evident in recent finishes

Grappling Scenarios

• Nakamura’s wrestling credentials and statistics suggest dominance
• Gafurov’s poor takedown defense likely to be exploited
• Nakamura’s submission threat adds another layer of danger

Key Factors

1. Nakamura’s superior wrestling credentials and statistics
2. Better defensive metrics across both striking and grappling
3. Undefeated momentum vs Gafurov’s inconsistent recent form
4. Nakamura’s demonstrated finishing ability

Risk Factors

1. Nakamura’s relative inexperience at UFC level
2. Gafurov’s recent win over ranked opponent
3. Both fighters’ southpaw stance could lead to less predictable exchanges

Prediction

Rinya Nakamura via TKO, Round 2

Confidence: 80%

Nakamura should be able to control where this fight takes place with his superior wrestling. His better striking defense and power advantage suggest he can hurt Gafurov on the feet, while his grappling gives him a clear path to victory through ground strikes or submissions. Gafurov’s recent performances and defensive vulnerabilities make him susceptible to Nakamura’s well-rounded attack.

The most likely outcome is Nakamura using his wrestling to wear down Gafurov early, leading to a ground and pound stoppage in the second round. A submission victory is also possible given Gafurov’s recent submission loss and Nakamura’s grappling prowess.

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Rosa lands significantly more strikes (6.49 vs 2.84 SLpM)
• Similar striking accuracy (Rosa 56% vs Perez 58%)
• Rosa absorbs more strikes (4.91 vs 1.34 SApM)
• Perez has better striking defense (57% vs 49%)

Grappling Metrics

• Perez shows superior takedown frequency (5.36 vs 1.2 per 15 min)
• Similar takedown defense (Rosa 68% vs Perez 66%)
• Perez has higher takedown accuracy (51% vs 46%)
• Perez shows more submission threat (0.3 vs 0.0 attempts/15min)

Physical Attributes

• Both fighters same height (5’5″)
• Rosa slight reach advantage (67″ vs 66″)
• Rosa one year younger (29 vs 30)
• Rosa orthodox vs Perez switch stance

Recent Form Analysis

Karol Rosa:

• Last 3: 2-1 (Win-Loss-Win)
• Strong volume striking in recent wins
• Consistent output but defensive vulnerabilities
• Mixed success against grapplers

Ailin Perez:

• Last 3: 3-0 (Win-Win-Win)
• Dominant wrestling-heavy performances
• Improving striking integration
• Recent submission finish shows development

Style Matchup Analysis

Rosa’s Advantages:

• Higher striking volume
• More UFC experience
• Slight reach advantage
• Better tested against ranked opposition

Perez’s Advantages:

• Superior wrestling
• Better defensive stats
• Submission threat
• Momentum/winning streak

Path to Victory

Rosa:

• Maintain distance with volume striking
• Defend takedowns early
• Work body shots to slow Perez’s wrestling
• Win striking exchanges at range

Perez:

• Pressure forward behind feints
• Time takedowns during Rosa’s combinations
• Control top position
• Look for submission opportunities

Key Factors

1. Wrestling control will be decisive
2. Rosa’s takedown defense crucial early
3. Fight location (cage vs center) important
4. Output vs efficiency in striking exchanges

Prediction

Ailin Perez by Decision Confidence: 65%

Rationale: Perez’s wrestling advantage and current momentum should allow her to control where the fight takes place. While Rosa has the higher striking volume, Perez’s superior takedown game and better defensive metrics suggest she can avoid the worst of the striking exchanges while implementing her gameplan. Rosa’s history of struggling with strong wrestlers also factors into this prediction.

The lower confidence rating reflects Rosa’s experience advantage and ability to potentially stuff takedowns and win striking exchanges. However, Perez’s recent form and style matchup advantages make her the slight favorite.

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Tale of the Tape

                    Dawson      Ferreira
Age:                30          39
Height:             5'10"       5'9"
Weight:             155 lbs     155 lbs
Reach:              72"         74"
Stance:             Switch      Orthodox

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

                    Dawson      Ferreira    Advantage
SLpM:               3.15        5.04        Ferreira +1.89
Str. Acc:          52%         39%         Dawson +13%
Strikes Absorbed:   2.04        3.43        Dawson +1.39
Striking Def:      45%         56%         Ferreira +11%

Grappling Metrics

                    Dawson      Ferreira    Advantage
TD Avg/15min:       3.65        0.96        Dawson +2.69
TD Accuracy:        38%         30%         Dawson +8%
TD Defense:         57%         60%         Ferreira +3%
Sub Attempts/15min: 1.2         0.6         Dawson +0.6

Recent Form Analysis

Grant Dawson (Last 3 Fights):

• WIN vs Rafa Garcia (KO/TKO, R2)
• WIN vs Joe Solecki (U-DEC)
• LOSS vs Bobby Green (KO/TKO, R1)

Diego Ferreira (Last 3 Fights):

• WIN vs Mateusz Rebecki (KO/TKO, R3)
• WIN vs Michael Johnson (KO/TKO, R2)
• LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot (KO/TKO, R2)

Style Matchup Analysis

Dawson’s Advantages:

• Higher volume takedown game
• More active submission threat
• Better striking accuracy
• Youth advantage
• Stronger recent momentum

Ferreira’s Advantages:

• Higher striking volume
• Better striking defense
• Reach advantage
• More KO power in recent fights
• More experienced against high-level competition

Technical Matchup Breakdown

1. Striking Phase
   • Ferreira has the higher volume striking game but with lower accuracy
   • Dawson’s switch stance could create challenges for Ferreira’s orthodox style
   • Ferreira has shown more finishing power in recent fights

   • Dawson’s defense vulnerabilities could be exploited by Ferreira’s volume

2. Grappling Phase

   • Dawson has a clear wrestling advantage with superior takedown rate
   • Ferreira’s takedown defense is only marginally better
   • Dawson’s submission game is more active and threatening

   • Fatigue could impact late-round grappling effectiveness

3. Clinch Work

   • Dawson’s wrestling should give him control in clinch exchanges
   • Ferreira has shown good defensive wrestling against elite competition
   • Age difference could impact clinch stamina

Key Factors & Risk Assessment

Critical Factors:

• Age and durability differential (30 vs 39)
• Striking defense vulnerability for Dawson
• Grappling control vs striking volume dynamic
• Recent finishing abilities for both fighters

Risk Factors:

• Dawson’s chin vulnerability (recent KO loss)
• Ferreira’s age and potential cardio issues
• Style clash could lead to stalemates in certain positions

Fight Prediction

After analyzing both fighters’ metrics and recent performances, I predict Grant Dawson will win via Submission in Round 3.

Confidence: 75%

Path to Victory: Dawson should use his wrestling advantage to control the early rounds while being cautious of Ferreira’s power. As the fight progresses, Ferreira’s age and cardio may become factors, allowing Dawson to find a submission opportunity in the later rounds.

The prediction takes into account:

• Dawson’s superior grappling metrics
• Age advantage and cardio implications
• Recent submission wins against strong competition
• Ferreira’s vulnerability to grappling-based attacks in recent losses

While Ferreira has shown knockout power, Dawson’s wrestling should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. The submission prediction is based on Ferreira’s historical vulnerability to strong grapplers and potential fatigue in later rounds.

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

Grappling Metrics

Physical Comparison

• Height: Reese 6’4″ (+2″) vs Dumas 6’2″
• Reach: Dumas 79″ (+2″) vs Reese 77″
• Age: Dumas 29 vs Reese 30
• Stance: Reese (Switch) vs Dumas (Orthodox)

Recent Form Analysis

Zachary Reese:

• Decision win over Medina showing improved cardio and wrestling
• Quick KO win over Marquez demonstrating striking power
• KO loss to Brundage exposing chin vulnerability
• Pattern: Alternates between dominant wins and defensive lapses

Sedriques Dumas:

• Decision win over Tiuliulin with improved wrestling
• KO loss to Ruziboev showing striking defense issues
• Decision win over Azaitar with technical striking
• Pattern: More consistent in decision fights, vulnerable to power

Style Matchup Analysis

1. Striking Dynamics:
   • Reese’s higher volume and accuracy vs Dumas’s better defense
   • Reese’s switch stance could pose problems for Dumas’s orthodox defense
   • Both have shown KO vulnerability
2. Grappling Scenarios:
   • Reese’s superior takedown rate and submission attempts
   • Dumas’s better takedown defense but less offensive wrestling
   • Ground exchanges favor Reese’s submission threat
3. Pace and Distance:
   • Reese typically pushes a higher pace
   • Dumas more effective at range using reach
   • Switch stance vs orthodox creates interesting angles

Key Factors

1. Technical Advantages:
   • Reese: Higher striking volume, better wrestling, submission threat
   • Dumas: Better striking defense, reach advantage, takedown defense
2. Physical Edges:
   • Reese: Height advantage, power in both stances
   • Dumas: Reach advantage, slightly younger
3. Vulnerabilities:
   • Reese: Takedown defense, chin concerns
   • Dumas: Lower striking output, submission defense

Prediction

Final Prediction: Zachary Reese via Submission, Round 2 Confidence: 65%

Rationale

Reese’s significantly higher offensive output in both striking and grappling, combined with his submission threat, should prove decisive. While Dumas has shown good striking defense and has a reach advantage, his lower output and historical submission vulnerability match up poorly against Reese’s aggressive style. The key will be Reese surviving early exchanges and implementing his wrestling game to set up the submission.

Risk Factors

1. Reese’s chin vulnerability
2. Dumas’s reach advantage in striking exchanges
3. Both fighters’ inconsistent performances

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Almeida: 2.46 strikes/min, 64% accuracy, 0.72 absorbed/min, 40% defense
• Spivac: 3.51 strikes/min, 49% accuracy, 3.72 absorbed/min, 50% defense
• Edge: Mixed – Almeida has better accuracy but lower volume, Spivac more active but less precise

Grappling Metrics

• Almeida: 6.85 TD/15min, 59% accuracy, 75% defense, 2.6 sub attempts/15min
• Spivac: 4.63 TD/15min, 65% accuracy, 70% defense, 0.7 sub attempts/15min
• Edge: Almeida – Superior takedown rate and submission threat

Physical Attributes

• Both 6’3″ tall
• Almeida: 79″ reach vs Spivac’s 78″
• Almeida typically lighter (205-235 lbs) vs Spivac (260 lbs)
• Edge: Spivac – Size and mass advantage

Recent Form Analysis

Almeida (Last 3)

• WIN – Alexandr Romanov (SUB R1)
• LOSS – Curtis Blaydes (KO/TKO R2)
• WIN – Derrick Lewis (U-DEC R5)

Spivac (Last 3)

• WIN – Marcin Tybura (SUB R1)
• LOSS – Ciryl Gane (KO/TKO R2)
• WIN – Derrick Lewis (SUB R1)

Style Matchup Analysis

1. Grappling Dynamics
   • Both fighters prefer grappling-heavy approaches
   • Almeida’s higher submission rate (2.6 vs 0.7) indicates greater finishing threat

   • Spivac’s size advantage could make him harder to control

2. Striking Exchanges

   • Neither fighter primarily striker-focused
   • Spivac more willing to engage on feet

   • Almeida more defensive and uses strikes to set up takedowns

3. Pace and Cardio

   • Almeida proven in 5-round fights (Lewis decision)
   • Spivac typically finishes early or shows decline in later rounds
   • Almeida’s lighter weight could provide cardio advantage

Key Factors

1. Technical Advantages
   • Almeida’s superior submission rate
   • Spivac’s weight advantage
   • Both strong in clinch control
2. Recent Performances
   • Both coming off wins
   • Both showed vulnerability to elite strikers (Blaydes, Gane)

   • Common opponent in Lewis – both successful but different methods

3. Critical Variables
   • Early grappling exchanges crucial
   • Size difference impact on takedown effectiveness
   • Gas tank if fight goes late

Prediction

Jailton Almeida via Submission, Round 2

Confidence: 65%

Rationale: While Spivac brings legitimate grappling credentials and a size advantage, Almeida’s superior submission threat and higher-paced grappling attack should prove decisive. Almeida’s proven cardio advantage suggests he can wear down the heavier Spivac if needed, but his submission skills likely create an opening before the later rounds. The loss to Blaydes shows Almeida can be hurt by power, but Spivac isn’t known for explosive striking. Expect Almeida to weather early resistance and find a submission in the second round as Spivac begins to fatigue.

Risk Factors

1. Spivac’s size advantage could negate Almeida’s preferred takedown entries
2. Almeida’s recent KO loss to Blaydes raises durability questions
3. Both fighters capable of controlling position, could lead to stalemate

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed per Minute: Talbott 8.38 vs Barcelos 5.22
• Striking Accuracy: Talbott 55% vs Barcelos 51%
• Strikes Absorbed per Minute: Talbott 3.57 vs Barcelos 4.79
• Striking Defense: Talbott 51% vs Barcelos 61%

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns per 15 min: Talbott 0.0 vs Barcelos 1.86
• Takedown Accuracy: Talbott 0% vs Barcelos 32%
• Takedown Defense: Talbott 90% vs Barcelos 85%
• Submission Attempts per 15 min: Talbott 0.5 vs Barcelos 0.6

Physical Advantages

• Height: Talbott +3″ (5’10” vs 5’7″)
• Reach: Talbott +3″ (70″ vs 67″)
• Age: Talbott -11 years (26 vs 37)

Recent Form Analysis

Payton Talbott

• Currently undefeated at 9-0
• Last 3 UFC fights:
• KO win over Ghemmouri (R1)
• TKO win over Saaiman (R2)
• Submission win over Aguirre (R3)
• Showing impressive striking power and finishing ability
• 100% finish rate in UFC
• Strong defensive wrestling (90% TD defense)

Raoni Barcelos

• Recent record: 2-3 in last 5
• Last 3 fights:
• Submission win over Quinonez (R3)
• Decision loss to Phillips
• KO loss to Nurmagomedov (R1)
• Mixed results but coming off strong win
• Demonstrated submission skills in last victory
• Has faced higher level competition

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Talbott shows superior volume and power striking
• Switch stance creates unpredictable angles
• Barcelos has better striking defense but absorbs more shots
• Talbott’s height and reach advantage significant for striking
• Both fighters capable of earning knockdowns

Grappling Scenarios

• Barcelos has more varied offensive wrestling
• Talbott’s takedown defense has been excellent
• Both possess submission ability
• Barcelos more likely to initiate grappling exchanges
• Ground battle could be competitive if it goes there

Key Factors

1. Youth vs Experience
2. Talbott’s athleticism and speed vs Barcelos’s veteran savvy
3. Age gap could be crucial in later rounds

4. Barcelos has faced higher level opposition

5. Striking Advantages

   • Talbott’s reach and height significant
   • Higher volume and accuracy from Talbott

   • Barcelos more defensively sound but takes more damage

6. Grappling Dynamic

   • Barcelos’s wrestling could test Talbott’s defense
   • Both capable on ground but prefer striking
   • Takedown defense key for Talbott

Prediction

Payton Talbott via TKO, Round 2

Confidence: 70%

Rationale:

• Talbott’s superior striking metrics and physical advantages
• Recent momentum and finishing ability
• Age and athleticism edge
• Barcelos’s recent inconsistency and durability concerns
• Talbott’s strong takedown defense neutralizes key Barcelos weapon

Risk Factors

1. Barcelos’s experience advantage
2. Talbott’s relative inexperience against veteran opposition
3. Potential for Barcelos to implement wrestling-heavy approach

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Makhachev: 2.65 SLpM / 59% Accuracy / 1.54 SApM / 61% Defense
• Tsarukyan: 3.79 SLpM / 48% Accuracy / 1.84 SApM / 53% Defense

Grappling Metrics

• Makhachev: 3.19 TD/15min / 53% Accuracy / 90% Defense / 1.1 Sub/15min
• Tsarukyan: 3.25 TD/15min / 37% Accuracy / 75% Defense / 0.0 Sub/15min

Physical Comparison

• Makhachev: 5’10” / 70″ reach / Southpaw
• Tsarukyan: 5’7″ / 72″ reach / Orthodox

Recent Form Analysis

Islam Makhachev

• Last 3 fights:
• WIN vs Dustin Poirier (SUB, R5)
• WIN vs Alexander Volkanovski (KO/TKO, R1)
• WIN vs Alexander Volkanovski (U-DEC)

Arman Tsarukyan

• Last 3 fights:
• WIN vs Charles Oliveira (S-DEC)
• WIN vs Beneil Dariush (KO/TKO, R1)
• WIN vs Joaquim Silva (KO/TKO, R3)

Style Matchup Analysis

1. Striking Dynamics
   • Makhachev excels in efficient striking (59% accuracy vs Tsarukyan’s 48%)
   • Tsarukyan shows higher volume (3.79 vs 2.65 SLpM)
   • Both fighters display strong striking defense, with Makhachev having the edge
2. Grappling Scenarios
   • Similar takedown frequency (3.19 vs 3.25 per 15 min)
   • Makhachev has superior takedown accuracy (53% vs 37%)

   • Makhachev’s submission threat (1.1 attempts/15min) vs Tsarukyan’s 0.0

3. Previous Meeting Analysis
   • First fight (2019): Makhachev won by Unanimous Decision
   • Both fighters have evolved significantly since then
   • Tsarukyan showed strong takedown defense even in his UFC debut

Technical Analysis

Makhachev’s Advantages

1. Superior submission threat
2. Higher striking accuracy
3. Better takedown defense (90%)
4. Championship experience
5. Proven 5-round conditioning

Tsarukyan’s Advantages

1. Higher striking volume
2. Reach advantage (2″)
3. Youth advantage (5 years younger)
4. Recent momentum
5. Significant technical evolution

Fight Path Analysis

Expect a highly technical battle that will likely go the distance. Makhachev will likely look to control the pace and distance, using his superior defensive wrestling to keep the fight where he wants it. Tsarukyan will need to push the pace and volume while avoiding the tactical traps that Makhachev sets.

The fight will likely be closer than their first meeting, with Tsarukyan’s improved striking and experience making it more competitive. However, Makhachev’s championship experience and proven ability to execute strategic gameplans over five rounds give him a slight edge.

Prediction: Makhachev by Decision (65% confidence)