Fight God

  • Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas 2 – Fight Analysis

    Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas 2 – Fight Analysis

    Fighter Stats

    • Mackenzie Dern: 14-5-0 (31 years old, 5’4″, 63″ reach)
    • Amanda Ribas: 12-5-0 (31 years old, 5’3″, 66″ reach)

    Previous Meeting

    Their first fight in October 2019 saw Ribas win a clear unanimous decision, utilizing superior striking and takedown defense to neutralize Dern’s grappling threats.

    Statistical Comparison

    Striking Metrics

    • Dern: 3.43 SLpM, 39% accuracy, 4.12 strikes absorbed/min, 51% defense
    • Ribas: 4.63 SLpM, 40% accuracy, 3.40 strikes absorbed/min, 61% defense
    • Edge: Ribas holds significant advantages in volume and defense

    Grappling Metrics

    • Dern: 0.88 TD/15min, 16% accuracy, 30% defense, 1.2 sub attempts/15min
    • Ribas: 2.07 TD/15min, 51% accuracy, 85% defense, 0.7 sub attempts/15min
    • Edge: Ribas has superior wrestling metrics, though Dern poses greater submission threat

    Recent Form Analysis

    Mackenzie Dern

    • Last 3: Win over Godinez (UD), Loss to Lemos (UD), Loss to Andrade (TKO)
    • Has struggled against elite strikers but showed improved takedown entries vs Godinez
    • 2-3 in last 5 fights, all losses coming against ranked opponents

    Amanda Ribas

    • Last 3: Loss to Namajunas (UD), Win over Pinheiro (TKO), Loss to Barber (TKO)
    • Moving between flyweight and strawweight
    • Showed improved striking power in Pinheiro win
    • 2-3 in last 5 fights

    Style Matchup Analysis

    Striking Phase

    • Ribas has cleaner technical striking and higher volume
    • Better footwork and distance management
    • Superior head movement reflected in strike defense stats
    • Dern has improved her striking but still shows defensive vulnerabilities

    Grappling Phase

    • Dern possesses elite BJJ credentials and dangerous submission game
    • Ribas has strong takedown defense (85%) and positional awareness
    • Ribas’s wrestling advantage could allow her to dictate where fight takes place
    • If Dern secures top position, high submission threat

    Key Strategic Factors

    1. Ring Control & Distance
      • Ribas needs to maintain distance and avoid clinch entries
      • Dern must close distance without absorbing damage
    2. Takedown Entries
      • Dern’s improved wrestling critical to implementing ground game

      • Ribas’s takedown defense historically strong against grapplers

    3. Cardio & Pace
      • Ribas typically maintains higher output
      • Dern has shown cardio improvements in recent fights

    Prediction

    Ribas likely wins via unanimous decision. Her superior striking technique, takedown defense, and ability to maintain distance should allow her to replicate much of her success from their first meeting. While Dern has improved, Ribas’s well-rounded skill set and defensive fundamentals present a difficult stylistic matchup.

    Key paths to victory: Ribas:

    • Maintain distance, defend takedowns, accumulate strikes at range
    • Dern: Force clinch entries, chain wrestling attempts, capitalize on scrambles

    Confidence: 70%

    Risk Factors

    1. Dern’s improved wrestling entries could change fight dynamics
    2. Ribas’s recent flyweight fights may impact strawweight performance
    3. One mistake on ground could lead to quick submission from Dern

  • Chris Curtis vs Roman Kopylov – Fight Analysis

    UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

    Matchup Overview

    This middleweight bout features two primarily striking-based fighters with contrasting styles. Chris Curtis (31-11-0, 1 NC) brings his orthodox stance and counter-striking approach against Roman Kopylov (13-3-0), a southpaw with impressive finishing power.

    Statistical Comparison

    Striking Metrics

    • Curtis: 5.76 strikes/min, 51% accuracy, 52% defense
    • Kopylov: 4.33 strikes/min, 54% accuracy, 58% defense

    Curtis has the higher volume but Kopylov is slightly more accurate and defensively sound. Curtis absorbs more strikes (6.16/min) compared to Kopylov (4.06/min), a concerning differential.

    Grappling Metrics

    • Curtis: 0.0 TD/15min, 82% TD defense
    • Kopylov: 1.2 TD/15min, 87% TD defense

    Neither fighter relies heavily on wrestling, though Kopylov has shown more willingness to mix in takedowns. Both have solid takedown defense.

    Recent Form Analysis

    Chris Curtis

    • Lost competitive decision to Brendan Allen (5 rounds)
    • Won split decision over Barriault
    • NC vs Imavov (accidental clash)
    • Lost decision to Gastelum
    • KO win over Buckley

    Curtis has faced high-level competition but shown some inconsistency, going 1-2-1 NC in his last four. His cardio held up well in the recent 5-round fight despite the loss.

    Roman Kopylov

    • Won decision over Almeida
    • Submission loss to Hernandez
    • Two consecutive KO/TKO wins (Fremd, Ribeiro)
    • Impressive KO of Soriano

    Kopylov has shown improved striking and finishing ability, going 4-1 in his last five with three KO/TKO victories.

    Style Matchup Analysis

    Striking Dynamics

    Curtis excels in close-range exchanges and counter-striking, while Kopylov prefers to work at middle distance with powerful kicks and straight punches. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup could favor Kopylov’s kicking game.

    Phase Control

    Both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing, though Kopylov has shown more willingness to mix in takedowns when needed. Curtis’s purely striking-based approach could become predictable.

    Key Factors

    1. Age and Wear: Curtis is 37 with significantly more fights
    2. Stance Matchup: Kopylov’s southpaw style could pose problems
    3. Power Advantage: Kopylov has shown more consistent finishing ability recently
    4. Experience Level: Curtis has faced higher-level competition

    Prediction

    Kopylov by KO/TKO in Round 2 (65% confidence)

    Rationale

    While Curtis has more high-level experience, recent trends favor Kopylov. Curtis’s higher strike absorption rate and age-related durability concerns match poorly with Kopylov’s improved striking and finishing ability. The southpaw stance advantage and Curtis’s purely striking-based approach make him more predictable, giving Kopylov clear targets for his power shots.

    Risk factors include Curtis’s veteran experience and proven durability in longer fights, but Kopylov’s recent form and more diverse attack paths should prove decisive.

  • Cesar Almeida vs Abdul Razak Alhassan – Fight Analysis

    UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

    Statistical Comparison

    Striking Metrics

    • Almeida: 4.12 strikes/min, 57% accuracy, 2.18 absorbed/min, 47% defense
    • Alhassan: 3.62 strikes/min, 49% accuracy, 3.97 absorbed/min, 55% defense

    Almeida shows superior volume and accuracy, though his defense is lower. His strike differential (+1.94) is significantly better than Alhassan’s (-0.35).

    Grappling Metrics

    • Almeida: Limited takedown attempts, 57% TD defense, 0.3 sub attempts/15min
    • Alhassan: 0.88 TD/15min, 38% accuracy, 51% TD defense, 0.2 sub attempts/15min

    Both fighters show limited grappling statistics, with neither demonstrating dominant wrestling credentials.

    Physical Attributes

    • Almeida: 6’1″, 74″ reach, Orthodox stance, 36 years old
    • Alhassan: 5’10”, 73″ reach, Orthodox stance, 39 years old

    Almeida holds height (+3″) and slight reach (+1″) advantages.

    Recent Form Analysis

    Cesar Almeida

    1. WIN vs Potieria – Showed technical striking and control over 3 rounds
    2. LOSS vs Kopylov – Close split decision loss showcasing durability
    3. WIN vs Budka – Impressive TKO showing finishing ability
    4. WIN vs Fernando (DWCS) – Dominant decision showing well-rounded skills

    Trend shows solid striking fundamentals and improving fight IQ.

    Abdul Razak Alhassan

    1. NC vs Brundage – Too brief to assess
    2. LOSS vs Pyfer – Submitted in R2 showing grappling vulnerability
    3. WIN vs Ribeiro – Explosive KO win demonstrating power
    4. LOSS vs Buckley – Struggled with pressure and volume

    Recent form shows declining consistency but maintains finishing power.

    Style Matchup Analysis

    Almeida’s technical striking and superior reach should allow him to control distance against Alhassan’s explosive but sometimes wild attacks. Alhassan’s power remains dangerous early, but his effectiveness drops significantly after the first round.

    Key factors:

    • Almeida’s superior strike differential and accuracy
    • Alhassan’s declining durability and cardio issues
    • Physical advantages favoring Almeida 4. Age and mileage difference

    Fight Prediction

    Almeida should be able to use his reach and technical superiority to avoid Alhassan’s power shots while accumulating damage at range. Expect Almeida to stay disciplined early, weather any initial aggression, then take over as Alhassan tires.

    Prediction: Cesar Almeida via Decision (75% confidence)

    The most likely path to victory is Almeida using superior footwork and range management to outpoint Alhassan over three rounds. Primary risk factor is Alhassan’s early power, which could change the fight instantly if he lands clean.

  • Nurullo Aliev vs Yanal Ashmouz – Detailed Fight Analysis

    UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

    Statistical Comparison

    Striking Metrics

    • Aliev has notably lower output (2.50 SLpM vs 2.94) but better defense
    • Aliev absorbs significantly fewer strikes (0.46 vs 4.54 SApM)
    • Similar striking accuracy (51% vs 50%)
    • Aliev has better striking defense (59% vs 55%)

    Grappling Metrics

    • Ashmouz shows higher takedown frequency (4.8 vs 3.06 per 15 min)
    • Similar takedown accuracy (Ashmouz 50% vs Aliev 44%)
    • Ashmouz has proven takedown defense (60%) while Aliev’s is untested
    • Neither fighter shows significant submission activity

    Physical Attributes

    • Height advantage to Aliev (5’10” vs 5’9″)
    • Significant reach advantage to Aliev (72″ vs 69″)
    • Age advantage to Aliev (24 vs 29)
    • Both fight orthodox stance

    Recent Form Analysis

    Nurullo Aliev

    • Undefeated at 9-0
    • Most recent win was a measured decision over Rafael Alves
    • Strong control-based approach in UFC debut
    • DWCS win showed finishing ability
    • Limited but impressive UFC sample size

    Yanal Ashmouz

    • Recent bounce-back win over Trevor Peek showing improved wrestling
    • Loss to Chris Duncan showed striking defense vulnerabilities
    • Quick KO win over Sam Patterson demonstrates power
    • 8-1 overall record with good finishing rate

    Style Matchup Evaluation

    Striking Phase

    • Aliev’s superior defense and reach advantage favor him at range
    • Ashmouz has shown more finishing power but absorbs more damage
    • Aliev’s conservative style likely to frustrate aggressive opponents

    Grappling Phase

    • Both fighters have shown strong wrestling credentials
    • Ashmouz’s higher takedown rate but against lower competition
    • Aliev’s control-heavy approach matches well with his cardio
    • Edge to Aliev in wrestling exchanges based on technique quality

    Key Factors

    1. Defensive superiority heavily favors Aliev
    2. Reach advantage will be significant for Aliev’s style
    3. Cardio edge to Aliev based on fighting approach
    4. Higher level of competition faced by Aliev

    Risk Factors

    1. Ashmouz’s proven finishing ability
    2. Limited UFC sample size for both fighters
    3. Potential for grinding wrestling match affecting scoring

    Prediction

    Nurullo Aliev by Unanimous Decision

    The combination of superior defense, reach advantage, and proven control-based approach should allow Aliev to dictate the pace and location of the fight. While Ashmouz has shown good offensive wrestling and finishing ability, his defensive vulnerabilities and higher strike absorption rate are significant concerns against a technical fighter like Aliev.

    Confidence: 75%

  • Ulanbekov vs Carpenter Fight Analysis

    UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

    Statistical Comparison

    Striking Metrics

    • Strikes Landed per Minute
      • Ulanbekov: 3.22
      • Carpenter: 4.56

      • Edge: Carpenter (+1.34)

    • Striking Accuracy
      • Ulanbekov: 45%
      • Carpenter: 53%

      • Edge: Carpenter (+8%)

    • Striking Defense
      • Ulanbekov: 51%
      • Carpenter: 60%
      • Edge: Carpenter (+9%)

    Grappling Metrics

    • Takedowns per 15 Minutes
      • Ulanbekov: 3.71
      • Carpenter: 2.95

      • Edge: Ulanbekov (+0.76)

    • Takedown Accuracy
      • Ulanbekov: 46%
      • Carpenter: 55%
      • Edge: Carpenter (+9%)

    Physical Attributes

    • Age: Ulanbekov (33) vs Carpenter (28)
    • Height: Ulanbekov (5’7″) vs Carpenter (5’6″)
    • Reach: Ulanbekov (70″) vs Carpenter (66″)
    • Significant reach advantage for Ulanbekov (+4″)

    Recent Form Analysis

    Tagir Ulanbekov

    • Last 3 fights: 2-1 – Strong recent performances with back-to-back submission wins
    • Demonstrated improved striking in Durden fight
    • Consistent grappling threat with multiple submission attempts per fight
    • Only loss came to veteran Tim Elliott in competitive decision

    Clayton Carpenter

    • Undefeated at 8-0 (2-0 UFC)
    • Two impressive submission victories in UFC
    • Shows technical striking with high accuracy
    • Limited UFC experience but dominant in recent performances
    • DWCS victory showed well-rounded skillset

    Style Matchup Analysis

    Striking Phase

    • Carpenter has superior striking metrics but shorter reach
    • Ulanbekov’s southpaw stance could present challenges
    • Carpenter’s higher accuracy may be tested against longer opponent
    • Both show improving striking but different approaches

    Grappling Phase

    • Both fighters regularly attempt submissions
    • Ulanbekov has more UFC-level grappling experience
    • Carpenter’s takedown defense untested at UFC level
    • Ground exchanges likely to be competitive

    Key Factors

    1. Experience gap heavily favors Ulanbekov
    2. Carpenter’s perfect record vs Ulanbekov’s proven UFC competition
    3. Reach advantage critical for Ulanbekov’s striking game
    4. Youth advantage for Carpenter could impact late-fight cardio

    Risk Factors

    1. Carpenter’s takedown defense unproven against high-level opposition
    2. Ulanbekov’s age and potential decline
    3. Limited data on Carpenter against elite competition

    Prediction

    After careful analysis of both fighters’ strengths, weaknesses, and recent performances, I predict Tagir Ulanbekov to win via Submission in Round 2.

    Confidence: 65%

    Rationale

    1. Ulanbekov’s significant experience advantage against higher-level competition
    2. Superior reach and proven grappling at UFC level
    3. Recent submission victories show finishing ability
    4. Carpenter’s takedown defense vulnerability could be exploited

    The key to victory for Ulanbekov will be using his reach advantage to set up takedowns, where his proven submission game can be implemented. While Carpenter shows promise, the experience gap and physical advantages favor Ulanbekov in this matchup.

  • UFC 311: Turcios vs Sopaj – Fight Analysis

    UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

    Fighter Comparison

    Physical Statistics

    Ricky TurciosBenardo Sopaj
    Age3124
    Height5’9″5’6″
    Weight135 lbs135 lbs
    Reach71″66″
    StanceOrthodoxOrthodox

    Performance Metrics

    Ricky TurciosBenardo Sopaj
    Strikes Landed per Min4.633.06
    Striking Accuracy37%52%
    Strikes Absorbed per Min3.344.56
    Striking Defense55%53%
    Takedowns per 15 min0.893.06
    Takedown Accuracy25%75%
    Takedown Defense45%50%
    Submission Attempts per 15 min0.50.0

    Statistical Analysis

    Striking Dynamics

    • Turcios demonstrates significantly higher output with 4.63 strikes per minute compared to Sopaj’s 3.06
    • While Sopaj shows better accuracy (52% vs 37%), Turcios’ volume makes up for the efficiency gap
    • Turcios absorbs fewer strikes (3.34 vs 4.56 per minute)
    • Defensive percentages are comparable with a slight edge to Turcios (55% vs 53%)

    Grappling Assessment

    • Sopaj shows superior wrestling credentials with higher takedown frequency (3.06 vs 0.89 per 15 minutes)
    • Sopaj’s takedown accuracy is notably better at 75% compared to Turcios’ 25%
    • Takedown defense is comparable between both fighters
    • Turcios shows more submission activity with 0.5 attempts per 15 minutes while Sopaj has none recorded

    Physical Advantages

    • Turcios holds significant height advantage (3 inches)
    • Critical reach advantage for Turcios (5 inches)
    • Age advantage favors Sopaj (24 vs 31)
    • No stance disadvantage as both are orthodox

    Recent Form Analysis

    Ricky Turcios

    1. Loss vs Raul Rosas Jr. (SUB, R2)
      • Struggled with younger opponent’s grappling

      • Limited offensive output before submission

    2. Win vs Kevin Natividad (Split Decision)

      • Showed effective volume striking

      • Successfully mixed in takedowns

    3. Loss vs Aiemann Zahabi (Unanimous Decision)
      • Struggled to implement offensive gameplan
      • Lower than usual strike output
    4. Win vs Brady Hiestand (Split Decision)
      • High-volume striking performance
      • Demonstrated ground skills with 2 takedowns

    Benardo Sopaj

    1. Loss vs Vinicius Oliveira (TKO, R3)
      • Started strong with wrestling
      • Showed defensive vulnerabilities in striking

    Limited UFC data available for deeper analysis of Sopaj’s tendencies and patterns.

    Style Matchup Analysis

    Standing Range

    • Turcios’ reach advantage should allow him to control distance
    • Higher volume striking favors Turcios
    • Sopaj must close distance effectively to implement wrestling

    Clinch Phase

    • Sopaj’s wrestling credentials suggest advantage in clinch
    • Turcios’ height could help with defending takedowns
    • Scrambling opportunities favor Turcios’ submission attempts

    Ground Phase

    • Sopaj’s top control likely stronger
    • Turcios shows more submission activity
    • Scrambling situations could favor either fighter

    Technical Matchup Implications

    Advantages for Turcios

    1. Superior striking volume
    2. Reach advantage for distance control
    3. More UFC-level experience
    4. Better defensive striking metrics

    Advantages for Sopaj

    1. Superior wrestling credentials
    2. Better takedown accuracy
    3. Youth advantage
    4. More efficient striking when landing

    Fight Prediction

    Based on comprehensive analysis of available data, I predict:

    • Winner: Ricky Turcios
    • Method: Decision
    • Confidence: 65%

    Path to Victory – Turcios

    1. Maintain distance using reach advantage
    2. Outpoint Sopaj with volume striking
    3. Defend takedowns using height/reach
    4. Scramble when taken down
    5. Keep high pace to test Sopaj’s cardio

    Path to Victory – Sopaj

    1. Close distance effectively
    2. Secure takedowns against the fence
    3. Maintain top control
    4. Avoid wild exchanges
    5. Control pace to preserve cardio

    Risk Factors

    For Turcios

    • Vulnerability to wrestling
    • Sometimes wild/unorthodox style can backfire
    • Recent submission loss

    For Sopaj

    • Limited UFC experience
    • Reach disadvantage
    • Recent TKO loss showing striking defense issues

    Additional Insights

    • Cardio could be a deciding factor given Turcios’ pace
    • Octagon control likely favors Turcios due to reach
    • First two rounds crucial for Sopaj’s wrestling
    • Third round likely favors Turcios’ conditioning

    Final Strategic Assessment

    The fight’s outcome will likely hinge on Turcios’ ability to maintain distance and Sopaj’s success in closing it. Turcios’ experience and physical advantages should allow him to implement his gameplan more effectively over three rounds, leading to a decision victory through superior volume striking and defensive wrestling.

  • Rinya Nakamura vs Muin Gafurov – Fight Analysis

    UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

    Statistical Comparison

    Striking Metrics

    • Nakamura: 3.53 Strikes Landed per min (54% acc) / 1.38 Strikes Absorbed per min(67% def)
    • Gafurov: 3.03 Strikes Landed per min(47% acc) / 2.25 trikes Absorbed per min(50% def)
      Clear advantage to Nakamura in both offensive efficiency and defensive ability

    Grappling Metrics

    • Nakamura: 3.72 Takedowns/15min (90% acc) / 100% Takedown defense
    • Gafurov: 1.95 Takedowns/15min (27% acc) / 68% Takedown defense
      Significant advantage to Nakamura in wrestling efficiency

    Physical Attributes

    • Both fighters are 5’7″ with 68″ reach
    • Nakamura (29) vs Gafurov (28)
    • Both southpaw stance
      No significant physical advantages for either fighter

    Recent Form Analysis

    Rinya Nakamura

    • Undefeated at 9-0 – Strong decision victories over Carlos Vera and Fernie Garcia
    • Quick KO of Toshiomi Kazama
    • Perfect takedown defense and high-efficiency wrestling
    • Demonstrated finishing ability with both strikes and submissions

    Muin Gafurov

    • 1-3 in last four fights
    • Recent win over Kyung Ho Kang showed improved striking
    • Submission loss to Said Nurmagomedov
    • Struggled with takedown defense against superior grapplers
    • Shows vulnerability to both striking and grappling attacks

    Style Matchup Evaluation

    Striking Dynamics

    • Nakamura’s superior striking defense and accuracy should give him an edge in exchanges
    • Both fighters southpaw eliminates traditional stance advantages
    • Nakamura’s power advantage evident in recent finishes

    Grappling Scenarios

    • Nakamura’s wrestling credentials and statistics suggest dominance
    • Gafurov’s poor takedown defense likely to be exploited
    • Nakamura’s submission threat adds another layer of danger

    Key Factors

    1. Nakamura’s superior wrestling credentials and statistics
    2. Better defensive metrics across both striking and grappling
    3. Undefeated momentum vs Gafurov’s inconsistent recent form
    4. Nakamura’s demonstrated finishing ability

    Risk Factors

    1. Nakamura’s relative inexperience at UFC level
    2. Gafurov’s recent win over ranked opponent
    3. Both fighters’ southpaw stance could lead to less predictable exchanges

    Prediction

    Rinya Nakamura via TKO, Round 2

    Confidence: 80%

    Nakamura should be able to control where this fight takes place with his superior wrestling. His better striking defense and power advantage suggest he can hurt Gafurov on the feet, while his grappling gives him a clear path to victory through ground strikes or submissions. Gafurov’s recent performances and defensive vulnerabilities make him susceptible to Nakamura’s well-rounded attack.

    The most likely outcome is Nakamura using his wrestling to wear down Gafurov early, leading to a ground and pound stoppage in the second round. A submission victory is also possible given Gafurov’s recent submission loss and Nakamura’s grappling prowess.

  • Karol Rosa vs Ailin Perez – Fight Analysis

    UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

    Statistical Comparison

    Striking Metrics

    • Rosa lands significantly more strikes (6.49 vs 2.84 SLpM)
    • Similar striking accuracy (Rosa 56% vs Perez 58%)
    • Rosa absorbs more strikes (4.91 vs 1.34 SApM)
    • Perez has better striking defense (57% vs 49%)

    Grappling Metrics

    • Perez shows superior takedown frequency (5.36 vs 1.2 per 15 min)
    • Similar takedown defense (Rosa 68% vs Perez 66%)
    • Perez has higher takedown accuracy (51% vs 46%)
    • Perez shows more submission threat (0.3 vs 0.0 attempts/15min)

    Physical Attributes

    • Both fighters same height (5’5″)
    • Rosa slight reach advantage (67″ vs 66″)
    • Rosa one year younger (29 vs 30)
    • Rosa orthodox vs Perez switch stance

    Recent Form Analysis

    Karol Rosa:

    • Last 3: 2-1 (Win-Loss-Win)
    • Strong volume striking in recent wins
    • Consistent output but defensive vulnerabilities
    • Mixed success against grapplers

    Ailin Perez:

    • Last 3: 3-0 (Win-Win-Win)
    • Dominant wrestling-heavy performances
    • Improving striking integration
    • Recent submission finish shows development

    Style Matchup Analysis

    Rosa’s Advantages:

    • Higher striking volume
    • More UFC experience
    • Slight reach advantage
    • Better tested against ranked opposition

    Perez’s Advantages:

    • Superior wrestling
    • Better defensive stats
    • Submission threat
    • Momentum/winning streak

    Path to Victory

    Rosa:

    • Maintain distance with volume striking
    • Defend takedowns early
    • Work body shots to slow Perez’s wrestling
    • Win striking exchanges at range

    Perez:

    • Pressure forward behind feints
    • Time takedowns during Rosa’s combinations
    • Control top position
    • Look for submission opportunities

    Key Factors

    1. Wrestling control will be decisive
    2. Rosa’s takedown defense crucial early
    3. Fight location (cage vs center) important
    4. Output vs efficiency in striking exchanges

    Prediction

    Ailin Perez by Decision Confidence: 65%

    Rationale: Perez’s wrestling advantage and current momentum should allow her to control where the fight takes place. While Rosa has the higher striking volume, Perez’s superior takedown game and better defensive metrics suggest she can avoid the worst of the striking exchanges while implementing her gameplan. Rosa’s history of struggling with strong wrestlers also factors into this prediction.

    The lower confidence rating reflects Rosa’s experience advantage and ability to potentially stuff takedowns and win striking exchanges. However, Perez’s recent form and style matchup advantages make her the slight favorite.

    1. Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira – Fight Analysis

      UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

      Tale of the Tape

                          Dawson      Ferreira
Age:                30          39
Height:             5'10"       5'9"
Weight:             155 lbs     155 lbs
Reach:              72"         74"
Stance:             Switch      Orthodox

      Statistical Comparison

      Striking Metrics

                          Dawson      Ferreira    Advantage
SLpM:               3.15        5.04        Ferreira +1.89
Str. Acc:          52%         39%         Dawson +13%
Strikes Absorbed:   2.04        3.43        Dawson +1.39
Striking Def:      45%         56%         Ferreira +11%

      Grappling Metrics

                          Dawson      Ferreira    Advantage
TD Avg/15min:       3.65        0.96        Dawson +2.69
TD Accuracy:        38%         30%         Dawson +8%
TD Defense:         57%         60%         Ferreira +3%
Sub Attempts/15min: 1.2         0.6         Dawson +0.6

      Recent Form Analysis

      Grant Dawson (Last 3 Fights):

      • WIN vs Rafa Garcia (KO/TKO, R2)
      • WIN vs Joe Solecki (U-DEC)
      • LOSS vs Bobby Green (KO/TKO, R1)

      Diego Ferreira (Last 3 Fights):

      • WIN vs Mateusz Rebecki (KO/TKO, R3)
      • WIN vs Michael Johnson (KO/TKO, R2)
      • LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot (KO/TKO, R2)

      Style Matchup Analysis

      Dawson’s Advantages:

      • Higher volume takedown game
      • More active submission threat
      • Better striking accuracy
      • Youth advantage
      • Stronger recent momentum

      Ferreira’s Advantages:

      • Higher striking volume
      • Better striking defense
      • Reach advantage
      • More KO power in recent fights
      • More experienced against high-level competition

      Technical Matchup Breakdown

      1. Striking Phase
        • Ferreira has the higher volume striking game but with lower accuracy
        • Dawson’s switch stance could create challenges for Ferreira’s orthodox style
        • Ferreira has shown more finishing power in recent fights

        • Dawson’s defense vulnerabilities could be exploited by Ferreira’s volume

      2. Grappling Phase

        • Dawson has a clear wrestling advantage with superior takedown rate
        • Ferreira’s takedown defense is only marginally better
        • Dawson’s submission game is more active and threatening

        • Fatigue could impact late-round grappling effectiveness

      3. Clinch Work

        • Dawson’s wrestling should give him control in clinch exchanges
        • Ferreira has shown good defensive wrestling against elite competition
        • Age difference could impact clinch stamina

      Key Factors & Risk Assessment

      Critical Factors:

      • Age and durability differential (30 vs 39)
      • Striking defense vulnerability for Dawson
      • Grappling control vs striking volume dynamic
      • Recent finishing abilities for both fighters

      Risk Factors:

      • Dawson’s chin vulnerability (recent KO loss)
      • Ferreira’s age and potential cardio issues
      • Style clash could lead to stalemates in certain positions

      Fight Prediction

      After analyzing both fighters’ metrics and recent performances, I predict Grant Dawson will win via Submission in Round 3.

      Confidence: 75%

      Path to Victory: Dawson should use his wrestling advantage to control the early rounds while being cautious of Ferreira’s power. As the fight progresses, Ferreira’s age and cardio may become factors, allowing Dawson to find a submission opportunity in the later rounds.

      The prediction takes into account:

      • Dawson’s superior grappling metrics
      • Age advantage and cardio implications
      • Recent submission wins against strong competition
      • Ferreira’s vulnerability to grappling-based attacks in recent losses

      While Ferreira has shown knockout power, Dawson’s wrestling should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. The submission prediction is based on Ferreira’s historical vulnerability to strong grapplers and potential fatigue in later rounds.

    2. Zachary Reese vs Sedriques Dumas – Fight Analysis

      UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

      Statistical Comparison

      Striking Metrics

      MetricReeseDumasAdvantage
      Strikes Landed/Min5.062.15Reese +2.91
      Striking Accuracy59%48%Reese +11%
      Strikes Absorbed/Min2.882.03Dumas +0.85
      Striking Defense48%58%Dumas +10%

      Grappling Metrics

      MetricReeseDumasAdvantage
      Takedowns/15min4.081.31Reese +2.77
      Takedown Accuracy55%35%Reese +20%
      Takedown Defense25%40%Dumas +15%
      Submission Attempts/15min2.50.3Reese +2.2

      Physical Comparison

      • Height: Reese 6’4″ (+2″) vs Dumas 6’2″
      • Reach: Dumas 79″ (+2″) vs Reese 77″
      • Age: Dumas 29 vs Reese 30
      • Stance: Reese (Switch) vs Dumas (Orthodox)

      Recent Form Analysis

      Zachary Reese:

      • Decision win over Medina showing improved cardio and wrestling
      • Quick KO win over Marquez demonstrating striking power
      • KO loss to Brundage exposing chin vulnerability
      • Pattern: Alternates between dominant wins and defensive lapses

      Sedriques Dumas:

      • Decision win over Tiuliulin with improved wrestling
      • KO loss to Ruziboev showing striking defense issues
      • Decision win over Azaitar with technical striking
      • Pattern: More consistent in decision fights, vulnerable to power

      Style Matchup Analysis

      1. Striking Dynamics:
        • Reese’s higher volume and accuracy vs Dumas’s better defense
        • Reese’s switch stance could pose problems for Dumas’s orthodox defense
        • Both have shown KO vulnerability
      2. Grappling Scenarios:
        • Reese’s superior takedown rate and submission attempts
        • Dumas’s better takedown defense but less offensive wrestling
        • Ground exchanges favor Reese’s submission threat
      3. Pace and Distance:
        • Reese typically pushes a higher pace
        • Dumas more effective at range using reach
        • Switch stance vs orthodox creates interesting angles

      Key Factors

      1. Technical Advantages:
        • Reese: Higher striking volume, better wrestling, submission threat
        • Dumas: Better striking defense, reach advantage, takedown defense
      2. Physical Edges:
        • Reese: Height advantage, power in both stances
        • Dumas: Reach advantage, slightly younger
      3. Vulnerabilities:
        • Reese: Takedown defense, chin concerns
        • Dumas: Lower striking output, submission defense

      Prediction

        Final Prediction: Zachary Reese via Submission, Round 2 Confidence: 65%

        Rationale

        Reese’s significantly higher offensive output in both striking and grappling, combined with his submission threat, should prove decisive. While Dumas has shown good striking defense and has a reach advantage, his lower output and historical submission vulnerability match up poorly against Reese’s aggressive style. The key will be Reese surviving early exchanges and implementing his wrestling game to set up the submission.

        Risk Factors

        1. Reese’s chin vulnerability
        2. Dumas’s reach advantage in striking exchanges
        3. Both fighters’ inconsistent performances