Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas 2 – Fight Analysis

Fighter Stats

• Mackenzie Dern: 14-5-0 (31 years old, 5’4″, 63″ reach)
• Amanda Ribas: 12-5-0 (31 years old, 5’3″, 66″ reach)

Previous Meeting

Their first fight in October 2019 saw Ribas win a clear unanimous decision, utilizing superior striking and takedown defense to neutralize Dern’s grappling threats.

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Dern: 3.43 SLpM, 39% accuracy, 4.12 strikes absorbed/min, 51% defense
• Ribas: 4.63 SLpM, 40% accuracy, 3.40 strikes absorbed/min, 61% defense
• Edge: Ribas holds significant advantages in volume and defense

Grappling Metrics

• Dern: 0.88 TD/15min, 16% accuracy, 30% defense, 1.2 sub attempts/15min
• Ribas: 2.07 TD/15min, 51% accuracy, 85% defense, 0.7 sub attempts/15min
• Edge: Ribas has superior wrestling metrics, though Dern poses greater submission threat

Recent Form Analysis

Mackenzie Dern

• Last 3: Win over Godinez (UD), Loss to Lemos (UD), Loss to Andrade (TKO)
• Has struggled against elite strikers but showed improved takedown entries vs Godinez
• 2-3 in last 5 fights, all losses coming against ranked opponents

Amanda Ribas

• Last 3: Loss to Namajunas (UD), Win over Pinheiro (TKO), Loss to Barber (TKO)
• Moving between flyweight and strawweight
• Showed improved striking power in Pinheiro win
• 2-3 in last 5 fights

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Phase

• Ribas has cleaner technical striking and higher volume
• Better footwork and distance management
• Superior head movement reflected in strike defense stats
• Dern has improved her striking but still shows defensive vulnerabilities

Grappling Phase

• Dern possesses elite BJJ credentials and dangerous submission game
• Ribas has strong takedown defense (85%) and positional awareness
• Ribas’s wrestling advantage could allow her to dictate where fight takes place
• If Dern secures top position, high submission threat

Key Strategic Factors

1. Ring Control & Distance
   • Ribas needs to maintain distance and avoid clinch entries
   • Dern must close distance without absorbing damage
2. Takedown Entries
   • Dern’s improved wrestling critical to implementing ground game

   • Ribas’s takedown defense historically strong against grapplers

3. Cardio & Pace
   • Ribas typically maintains higher output
   • Dern has shown cardio improvements in recent fights

Prediction

Ribas likely wins via unanimous decision. Her superior striking technique, takedown defense, and ability to maintain distance should allow her to replicate much of her success from their first meeting. While Dern has improved, Ribas’s well-rounded skill set and defensive fundamentals present a difficult stylistic matchup.

Key paths to victory: Ribas:

• Maintain distance, defend takedowns, accumulate strikes at range
• Dern: Force clinch entries, chain wrestling attempts, capitalize on scrambles

Confidence: 70%

Risk Factors

1. Dern’s improved wrestling entries could change fight dynamics
2. Ribas’s recent flyweight fights may impact strawweight performance
3. One mistake on ground could lead to quick submission from Dern

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Aliev has notably lower output (2.50 SLpM vs 2.94) but better defense
• Aliev absorbs significantly fewer strikes (0.46 vs 4.54 SApM)
• Similar striking accuracy (51% vs 50%)
• Aliev has better striking defense (59% vs 55%)

Grappling Metrics

• Ashmouz shows higher takedown frequency (4.8 vs 3.06 per 15 min)
• Similar takedown accuracy (Ashmouz 50% vs Aliev 44%)
• Ashmouz has proven takedown defense (60%) while Aliev’s is untested
• Neither fighter shows significant submission activity

Physical Attributes

• Height advantage to Aliev (5’10” vs 5’9″)
• Significant reach advantage to Aliev (72″ vs 69″)
• Age advantage to Aliev (24 vs 29)
• Both fight orthodox stance

Recent Form Analysis

Nurullo Aliev

• Undefeated at 9-0
• Most recent win was a measured decision over Rafael Alves
• Strong control-based approach in UFC debut
• DWCS win showed finishing ability
• Limited but impressive UFC sample size

Yanal Ashmouz

• Recent bounce-back win over Trevor Peek showing improved wrestling
• Loss to Chris Duncan showed striking defense vulnerabilities
• Quick KO win over Sam Patterson demonstrates power
• 8-1 overall record with good finishing rate

Style Matchup Evaluation

Striking Phase

• Aliev’s superior defense and reach advantage favor him at range
• Ashmouz has shown more finishing power but absorbs more damage
• Aliev’s conservative style likely to frustrate aggressive opponents

Grappling Phase

• Both fighters have shown strong wrestling credentials
• Ashmouz’s higher takedown rate but against lower competition
• Aliev’s control-heavy approach matches well with his cardio
• Edge to Aliev in wrestling exchanges based on technique quality

Key Factors

1. Defensive superiority heavily favors Aliev
2. Reach advantage will be significant for Aliev’s style
3. Cardio edge to Aliev based on fighting approach
4. Higher level of competition faced by Aliev

Risk Factors

1. Ashmouz’s proven finishing ability
2. Limited UFC sample size for both fighters
3. Potential for grinding wrestling match affecting scoring

Prediction

Nurullo Aliev by Unanimous Decision

The combination of superior defense, reach advantage, and proven control-based approach should allow Aliev to dictate the pace and location of the fight. While Ashmouz has shown good offensive wrestling and finishing ability, his defensive vulnerabilities and higher strike absorption rate are significant concerns against a technical fighter like Aliev.

Confidence: 75%

Event: UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Weight Class: Middleweight

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

                    Holland    de Ridder    Differential
SLpM:               4.24      3.24         +1.00 Holland
Str. Accuracy:      49%       57%          +8% de Ridder
Str. Absorbed:      3.21      2.56         +0.65 Holland
Str. Defense:       50%       44%          +6% Holland

Grappling Metrics

                    Holland    de Ridder    Differential
TD Avg/15min:       0.83      6.39         +5.56 de Ridder
TD Accuracy:        38%       38%          Even
TD Defense:         54%       100%         +46% de Ridder
Sub Attempts/15:    0.6       1.3          +0.7 de Ridder

Physical Attributes

                    Holland    de Ridder    Differential
Height:             6'3"      6'4"         +1" de Ridder
Reach:              81"       78"          +3" Holland
Age:                32        34           +2 Holland

Recent Form Analysis

Kevin Holland

• Last 3 fights show mixed results:
• LOSS vs Dolidze (KO/TKO, R1) – Exposed grappling vulnerabilities
• WIN vs Oleksiejczuk (SUB, R1) – Showed improved submission skills
• LOSS vs Page (U-DEC) – Struggled with striking-focused opponent

Reinier de Ridder

• Only UFC fight:
• WIN vs Meerschaert (SUB, R3) – Dominant grappling performance with 5 takedowns

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Phase

• Holland has superior volume and reach advantage
• More diverse striking arsenal with better defense
• Higher knockout potential with better power strikes
• de Ridder uses striking primarily to set up takedowns

Grappling Phase

• Massive advantage to de Ridder in takedown frequency
• Holland’s 54% takedown defense will be severely tested
• de Ridder’s perfect takedown defense suggests superior positional control
• Both fighters capable of submissions but de Ridder more prolific

Key Factors

1. Wrestling Control
2. de Ridder’s takedown rate of 6.39/15min is exceptional
3. Holland’s historically struggled against strong wrestlers
4. Striking Range
5. Holland’s 3″ reach advantage critical for keeping distance
6. Must maintain range to avoid takedown attempts
7. Submission Defense
8. Holland vulnerable to submissions historically
9. de Ridder’s high submission attempt rate concerning for Holland

Prediction

After careful analysis of the statistical matchups and recent performances, this fight presents a clear stylistic clash between Holland’s striking and de Ridder’s grappling. The most likely outcome sees de Ridder implementing his wrestling-heavy game plan successfully against Holland’s historically vulnerable takedown defense.

Predicted Winner: Reinier de Ridder Method: Submission Round: 2 Confidence: 75%

Winning Scenario

de Ridder will likely weather early striking exchanges while looking for takedown opportunities. Once secured, his superior control and submission skills should allow him to work toward a finish. Holland’s recent submission loss to Dolidze suggests this vulnerability remains exploitable.

Risk Factors

1. Holland’s improved grappling shown in recent Oleksiejczuk win
2. Limited UFC sample size for de Ridder
3. Holland’s significant striking power could end fight early

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Tale of the Tape

                  Walker    Guskov
Height:             6'6"     6'3"
Weight:             205      205
Reach:              82"      76"
Stance:          Orthodox  Orthodox
Age:                32       32

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Walker lands more volume (3.87 vs 3.13 SLpM)
• Walker has better accuracy (53% vs 48%)
• Walker absorbs fewer strikes (3.12 vs 3.70 SApM)
• Similar defensive stats (44% vs 47%)

Grappling Metrics

• Walker shows more diverse offense with takedown threats
• Walker has demonstrated submission ability (0.9 attempts/15min)
• Guskov has slightly better TD defense (66% vs 57%)
• Walker’s 100% TD accuracy vs Guskov’s 0% attempts

Recent Form Analysis

Johnny Walker:

• Coming off back-to-back losses to elite competition (Oezdemir, Ankalaev)
• Prior to losses had a solid 3-fight win streak
• Shows finishing ability but vulnerability to being finished
• 7 of last 8 fights ended inside distance

Bogdan Guskov:

• On 2-fight win streak with impressive KO power
• Both recent wins via KO/TKO
• Limited UFC experience (3 fights)
• Lost UFC debut but showed resilience

Style Matchup Evaluation

Striking Dynamics:

• Walker’s 6″ reach advantage significant
• Both fighters favor striking but different approaches
• Walker more diverse with spinning/flying attacks
• Guskov shows traditional power punching

Key Factors:

• Walker’s significant reach advantage
• Both fighters’ finishing ability and KO power
• Walker’s experience advantage
• Both fighters’ defensive vulnerabilities

Path to Victory Analysis

Walker:

• Use reach advantage to control distance
• Employ unorthodox strikes from range
• Mix in takedown threats
• Avoid brawling exchanges

Guskov:

• Close distance aggressively
• Time counter shots during Walker’s attacks
• Target Walker’s chin
• Keep fight in boxing range

Prediction

Given the statistical advantages, experience level, and physical attributes, Johnny Walker should be considered the favorite. However, his recent knockout losses and defensive vulnerabilities make this a dangerous matchup against a power puncher.

Prediction: Johnny Walker via TKO, Round 2 Confidence: 65%

Rationale:

• Significant reach advantage will be key
• More diverse offensive arsenal
• Higher level of competition faced
• Both fighters vulnerable to KO but Walker’s range management should prevail

Risk Factors:

• Walker’s chin vulnerability
• Guskov’s recent KO power
• Walker’s occasional defensive lapses

Overview

A pivotal lightweight clash between two veteran contenders at drastically different points in their trajectories. Beneil Dariush enters on a concerning two-fight losing streak, while Renato Moicano rides high on an impressive four-fight win streak including recent victories over Benoit Saint Denis and Jalin Turner.

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Strike Rate:
  • Dariush: 3.78 strikes landed per minute
  • Moicano: 4.42 strikes landed per minute

  • Edge: Moicano (+0.64)

• Striking Accuracy:

  • Dariush: 48%
  • Moicano: 49%

  • Edge: Moicano (+1%)

• Striking Defense:

  • Dariush: 57%
  • Moicano: 60%
  • Edge: Moicano (+3%)

Grappling Metrics

• Takedown Average (per 15 min):
  • Dariush: 1.90
  • Moicano: 1.87

  • Edge: Nearly Even

• Takedown Accuracy:

  • Dariush: 34%
  • Moicano: 44%

  • Edge: Moicano (+10%)

• Takedown Defense:

  • Dariush: 80%
  • Moicano: 72%
  • Edge: Dariush (+8%)

Physical Comparison

• Both fighters are similarly sized with identical 72″ reaches
• Moicano holds a slight 1″ height advantage
• Both fighters are 35 years old
• Dariush fights southpaw while Moicano is orthodox

Recent Form Analysis

Beneil Dariush

Last three fights:

• L – Arman Tsarukyan (KO/TKO R1)
• L – Charles Oliveira (KO/TKO R1)
• W – Mateusz Gamrot (Decision)

Concerning pattern of first-round knockout losses in his last two outings, suggesting potential durability issues. Prior to these losses, showed well-rounded skills against high-level competition.

Renato Moicano

Last three fights:

• W – Benoit Saint Denis (KO/TKO R2)
• W – Jalin Turner (KO/TKO R2)
• W – Drew Dober (Decision)

Displaying career-best form with impressive finishes and complete performances. Notable improvements in striking defense and power.

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Moicano employs a more volume-based approach with superior output
• Dariush carries more one-shot power but has shown chin vulnerability
• Orthodox vs southpaw matchup favors Moicano’s jab and right hand
• Both fighters effective with low kicks

Grappling Scenarios

• Dariush holds black belt credentials with dangerous submission game
• Moicano equally capable on the ground with strong back-taking ability
• Neutral position grappling likely to favor Dariush’s pressure
• Scrambles could be decisive given both fighters’ submission threats

Key Factors

1. Dariush’s durability concerns after recent KO losses
2. Moicano’s superior recent form and momentum
3. Competitive technical matchup in all phases
4. Both fighters’ age and potential decline phase
5. Five-round conditioning advantage to Moicano

Path to Victory

Dariush

• Must return to grappling-heavy approach
• Avoid prolonged striking exchanges
• Work from clinch to minimize counter exposure
• Target body and legs early to slow Moicano’s movement

Moicano

• Maintain distance with jab and leg kicks
• Exploit orthodox vs southpaw angle for right hand
• Defend early takedown attempts to build confidence
• Push pace to test Dariush’s recovery from recent KOs

Final Prediction

Renato Moicano to win via TKO in Round 2.

Confidence Rating: 70%

Key Reasoning:

1. Moicano’s superior recent form and confidence
2. Dariush’s concerning pattern of early KO losses
3. Moicano’s technical advantages in the striking phase
4. Historical success against southpaw opponents
5. More complete evolution of skill set in recent fights

The early moments will be crucial – if Dariush can secure takedowns and control position, he could certainly grind out a decision or find a submission. However, Moicano’s improved takedown defense and sharp counter striking, combined with Dariush’s recent durability issues, make a second-round TKO the most likely outcome.

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

Grappling Metrics

Physical Attributes

Recent Form Analysis

Umar Nurmagomedov

• Undefeated record (18-0)
• Last three fights:
• UD win over Sandhagen (high-level, 5-round main event)
• UD win over Almakhan (dominant control)
• KO win over Barcelos (showed striking power)
• Demonstrated well-rounded skillset
• Notable improvements in striking technique
• Strong cardio in 5-round fight against Sandhagen

Merab Dvalishvili

• 9-fight win streak
• Last three fights:
• UD win over O’Malley (high-level striking defense)
• UD win over Cejudo (wrestling dominance)
• UD win over Yan (relentless pressure)
• Exceptional cardio and pace
• Improved striking defense
• Elite wrestling pressure

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Nurmagomedov has superior striking accuracy and defense
• Dvalishvili relies on volume and pressure
• Nurmagomedov’s cleaner technique vs Dvalishvili’s chaos
• Distance management favors Nurmagomedov

Grappling Scenarios

• Both fighters highly skilled wrestlers
• Dvalishvili’s higher volume takedown attempts
• Nurmagomedov’s perfect takedown defense
• Clinch exchanges likely crucial
• Nurmagomedov’s superior submission threat

Pace and Control

• Dvalishvili’s relentless pressure
• Nurmagomedov’s superior efficiency
• Battle of cardio and wrestling endurance
• Championship rounds experience for both

Key Factors

1. Wrestling Neutralization
2. Both fighters may struggle to implement takedowns
3. Superior takedown defense could force striking battle
4. Strike Efficiency
5. Nurmagomedov’s accuracy vs Dvalishvili’s volume
6. Clean shots vs pressure striking
7. Cardio and Pace
8. Dvalishvili’s trademark pressure
9. Nurmagomedov’s efficiency
10. Five-round experience for both
11. Technical Advantages
12. Nurmagomedov’s cleaner striking
13. Dvalishvili’s wrestling pressure
14. Clinch control battle

Prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision (48-47) Confidence: 65%

Rationale

The fight presents a fascinating clash between Dvalishvili’s relentless wrestling pressure and Nurmagomedov’s technical superiority. While Dvalishvili will likely push an incredible pace, Nurmagomedov’s superior striking accuracy, takedown defense, and overall efficiency should allow him to control key moments of the fight. The younger fighter’s ability to maintain distance and land the cleaner shots while defending takedowns will be crucial.

Expect a competitive battle where Nurmagomedov’s technical advantages narrowly overcome Dvalishvili’s pressure and volume. The fight will likely see shifts in momentum, but Nurmagomedov’s superior strike accuracy and takedown defense should earn him more clear scoring moments.

Risk Factors:

• Dvalishvili’s incredible cardio and pace
• Potential for grinding clinch battles
• High-level wrestling potentially neutralizing both fighters’ primary weapons

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed per Minute: Prochazka (5.38) vs Hill (7.18)
• Striking Accuracy: Prochazka (55%) vs Hill (54%)
• Strikes Absorbed per Minute: Prochazka (5.59) vs Hill (3.51)
• Striking Defense: Prochazka (39%) vs Hill (46%)

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns/15min: Prochazka (0.72) vs Hill (0.0)
• Takedown Accuracy: Prochazka (60%) vs Hill (0%)
• Takedown Defense: Prochazka (68%) vs Hill (73%)
• Submission Attempts/15min: Prochazka (0.2) vs Hill (0.0)

Recent Form Analysis

Jiri Prochazka

•  Lost to Alex Pereira via R2 KO (June 2024)
• Defeated Aleksandar Rakic via R2 KO (April 2024)
• Lost to Alex Pereira via R2 KO (Nov 2023)

Pattern: Has shown vulnerability to precision strikers, but maintains explosive finishing ability

Jamahal Hill

•  Lost to Alex Pereira via R1 KO (April 2024)
• Defeated Glover Teixeira via Decision (Jan 2023)
• Defeated Thiago Santos via R4 KO (Aug 2022)

Pattern: Strong against traditional wrestlers/grapplers, vulnerable to elite strikers

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics 

• Both fighters are primarily strikers with high output
• Hill has superior defensive metrics and better strike absorption rate
• Prochazka’s unconventional movement could pose timing issues for Hill
• Hill’s southpaw stance adds complexity to the matchup

Grappling Scenarios

•  Prochazka has shown more willingness to mix in takedowns
• Both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing
• Neither relies heavily on submission offense
• Hill has slightly better takedown defense

Distance Management

•  Prochazka’s reach advantage (80″ vs 79″) is minimal
• Hill typically manages distance better with his jab
• Prochazka tends to close distance aggressively and chaotically

Key Factors

Technical Advantages 

• Hill: Better defensive striking metrics
• Hill: More disciplined striking approach
• Prochazka: More diverse offensive toolkit
• Prochazka: Better ground game threat

Physical Advantages

• Hill: Slightly taller
• Prochazka: Marginally longer reach
• Hill: Better defensive movement
• Prochazka: More explosive athleticism

Prediction

Jamahal Hill via TKO, Round 3 Confidence: 65%

Rationale: Hill’s superior strike differential and defensive metrics suggest he can better manage the chaotic exchanges Prochazka initiates. While both fighters have recent losses to Pereira, Hill’s overall striking defense and more methodical approach should allow him to weather early storms and find openings as Prochazka’s aggressive style leaves defensive gaps. The southpaw stance will further complicate timing for Prochazka’s entries.

Path to Victory: Hill needs to maintain disciplined distance management early, avoid Prochazka’s explosive entries, and capitalize on counter-striking opportunities. As the fight progresses, Prochazka’s aggressive style typically creates more openings, giving Hill opportunities to land fight-ending combinations.

Risk factors include Prochazka’s durability and unpredictable attack angles, which could bypass Hill’s usual defensive excellence.