Category: Fight Analysis

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Almeida: 2.46 strikes/min, 64% accuracy, 0.72 absorbed/min, 40% defense
• Spivac: 3.51 strikes/min, 49% accuracy, 3.72 absorbed/min, 50% defense
• Edge: Mixed – Almeida has better accuracy but lower volume, Spivac more active but less precise

Grappling Metrics

• Almeida: 6.85 TD/15min, 59% accuracy, 75% defense, 2.6 sub attempts/15min
• Spivac: 4.63 TD/15min, 65% accuracy, 70% defense, 0.7 sub attempts/15min
• Edge: Almeida – Superior takedown rate and submission threat

Physical Attributes

• Both 6’3″ tall
• Almeida: 79″ reach vs Spivac’s 78″
• Almeida typically lighter (205-235 lbs) vs Spivac (260 lbs)
• Edge: Spivac – Size and mass advantage

Recent Form Analysis

Almeida (Last 3)

• WIN – Alexandr Romanov (SUB R1)
• LOSS – Curtis Blaydes (KO/TKO R2)
• WIN – Derrick Lewis (U-DEC R5)

Spivac (Last 3)

• WIN – Marcin Tybura (SUB R1)
• LOSS – Ciryl Gane (KO/TKO R2)
• WIN – Derrick Lewis (SUB R1)

Style Matchup Analysis

1. Grappling Dynamics
   • Both fighters prefer grappling-heavy approaches
   • Almeida’s higher submission rate (2.6 vs 0.7) indicates greater finishing threat

   • Spivac’s size advantage could make him harder to control

2. Striking Exchanges

   • Neither fighter primarily striker-focused
   • Spivac more willing to engage on feet

   • Almeida more defensive and uses strikes to set up takedowns

3. Pace and Cardio

   • Almeida proven in 5-round fights (Lewis decision)
   • Spivac typically finishes early or shows decline in later rounds
   • Almeida’s lighter weight could provide cardio advantage

Key Factors

1. Technical Advantages
   • Almeida’s superior submission rate
   • Spivac’s weight advantage
   • Both strong in clinch control
2. Recent Performances
   • Both coming off wins
   • Both showed vulnerability to elite strikers (Blaydes, Gane)

   • Common opponent in Lewis – both successful but different methods

3. Critical Variables
   • Early grappling exchanges crucial
   • Size difference impact on takedown effectiveness
   • Gas tank if fight goes late

Prediction

Jailton Almeida via Submission, Round 2

Confidence: 65%

Rationale: While Spivac brings legitimate grappling credentials and a size advantage, Almeida’s superior submission threat and higher-paced grappling attack should prove decisive. Almeida’s proven cardio advantage suggests he can wear down the heavier Spivac if needed, but his submission skills likely create an opening before the later rounds. The loss to Blaydes shows Almeida can be hurt by power, but Spivac isn’t known for explosive striking. Expect Almeida to weather early resistance and find a submission in the second round as Spivac begins to fatigue.

Risk Factors

1. Spivac’s size advantage could negate Almeida’s preferred takedown entries
2. Almeida’s recent KO loss to Blaydes raises durability questions
3. Both fighters capable of controlling position, could lead to stalemate

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed per Minute: Talbott 8.38 vs Barcelos 5.22
• Striking Accuracy: Talbott 55% vs Barcelos 51%
• Strikes Absorbed per Minute: Talbott 3.57 vs Barcelos 4.79
• Striking Defense: Talbott 51% vs Barcelos 61%

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns per 15 min: Talbott 0.0 vs Barcelos 1.86
• Takedown Accuracy: Talbott 0% vs Barcelos 32%
• Takedown Defense: Talbott 90% vs Barcelos 85%
• Submission Attempts per 15 min: Talbott 0.5 vs Barcelos 0.6

Physical Advantages

• Height: Talbott +3″ (5’10” vs 5’7″)
• Reach: Talbott +3″ (70″ vs 67″)
• Age: Talbott -11 years (26 vs 37)

Recent Form Analysis

Payton Talbott

• Currently undefeated at 9-0
• Last 3 UFC fights:
• KO win over Ghemmouri (R1)
• TKO win over Saaiman (R2)
• Submission win over Aguirre (R3)
• Showing impressive striking power and finishing ability
• 100% finish rate in UFC
• Strong defensive wrestling (90% TD defense)

Raoni Barcelos

• Recent record: 2-3 in last 5
• Last 3 fights:
• Submission win over Quinonez (R3)
• Decision loss to Phillips
• KO loss to Nurmagomedov (R1)
• Mixed results but coming off strong win
• Demonstrated submission skills in last victory
• Has faced higher level competition

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Talbott shows superior volume and power striking
• Switch stance creates unpredictable angles
• Barcelos has better striking defense but absorbs more shots
• Talbott’s height and reach advantage significant for striking
• Both fighters capable of earning knockdowns

Grappling Scenarios

• Barcelos has more varied offensive wrestling
• Talbott’s takedown defense has been excellent
• Both possess submission ability
• Barcelos more likely to initiate grappling exchanges
• Ground battle could be competitive if it goes there

Key Factors

1. Youth vs Experience
2. Talbott’s athleticism and speed vs Barcelos’s veteran savvy
3. Age gap could be crucial in later rounds

4. Barcelos has faced higher level opposition

5. Striking Advantages

   • Talbott’s reach and height significant
   • Higher volume and accuracy from Talbott

   • Barcelos more defensively sound but takes more damage

6. Grappling Dynamic

   • Barcelos’s wrestling could test Talbott’s defense
   • Both capable on ground but prefer striking
   • Takedown defense key for Talbott

Prediction

Payton Talbott via TKO, Round 2

Confidence: 70%

Rationale:

• Talbott’s superior striking metrics and physical advantages
• Recent momentum and finishing ability
• Age and athleticism edge
• Barcelos’s recent inconsistency and durability concerns
• Talbott’s strong takedown defense neutralizes key Barcelos weapon

Risk Factors

1. Barcelos’s experience advantage
2. Talbott’s relative inexperience against veteran opposition
3. Potential for Barcelos to implement wrestling-heavy approach

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Makhachev: 2.65 SLpM / 59% Accuracy / 1.54 SApM / 61% Defense
• Tsarukyan: 3.79 SLpM / 48% Accuracy / 1.84 SApM / 53% Defense

Grappling Metrics

• Makhachev: 3.19 TD/15min / 53% Accuracy / 90% Defense / 1.1 Sub/15min
• Tsarukyan: 3.25 TD/15min / 37% Accuracy / 75% Defense / 0.0 Sub/15min

Physical Comparison

• Makhachev: 5’10” / 70″ reach / Southpaw
• Tsarukyan: 5’7″ / 72″ reach / Orthodox

Recent Form Analysis

Islam Makhachev

• Last 3 fights:
• WIN vs Dustin Poirier (SUB, R5)
• WIN vs Alexander Volkanovski (KO/TKO, R1)
• WIN vs Alexander Volkanovski (U-DEC)

Arman Tsarukyan

• Last 3 fights:
• WIN vs Charles Oliveira (S-DEC)
• WIN vs Beneil Dariush (KO/TKO, R1)
• WIN vs Joaquim Silva (KO/TKO, R3)

Style Matchup Analysis

1. Striking Dynamics
   • Makhachev excels in efficient striking (59% accuracy vs Tsarukyan’s 48%)
   • Tsarukyan shows higher volume (3.79 vs 2.65 SLpM)
   • Both fighters display strong striking defense, with Makhachev having the edge
2. Grappling Scenarios
   • Similar takedown frequency (3.19 vs 3.25 per 15 min)
   • Makhachev has superior takedown accuracy (53% vs 37%)

   • Makhachev’s submission threat (1.1 attempts/15min) vs Tsarukyan’s 0.0

3. Previous Meeting Analysis
   • First fight (2019): Makhachev won by Unanimous Decision
   • Both fighters have evolved significantly since then
   • Tsarukyan showed strong takedown defense even in his UFC debut

Technical Analysis

Makhachev’s Advantages

1. Superior submission threat
2. Higher striking accuracy
3. Better takedown defense (90%)
4. Championship experience
5. Proven 5-round conditioning

Tsarukyan’s Advantages

1. Higher striking volume
2. Reach advantage (2″)
3. Youth advantage (5 years younger)
4. Recent momentum
5. Significant technical evolution

Fight Path Analysis

Expect a highly technical battle that will likely go the distance. Makhachev will likely look to control the pace and distance, using his superior defensive wrestling to keep the fight where he wants it. Tsarukyan will need to push the pace and volume while avoiding the tactical traps that Makhachev sets.

The fight will likely be closer than their first meeting, with Tsarukyan’s improved striking and experience making it more competitive. However, Makhachev’s championship experience and proven ability to execute strategic gameplans over five rounds give him a slight edge.

Prediction: Makhachev by Decision (65% confidence)