Zachary Reese vs Sedriques Dumas – Fight Analysis

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

Metric	Reese	Dumas	Advantage
Strikes Landed/Min	5.06	2.15	Reese +2.91
Striking Accuracy	59%	48%	Reese +11%
Strikes Absorbed/Min	2.88	2.03	Dumas +0.85
Striking Defense	48%	58%	Dumas +10%

Grappling Metrics

Metric	Reese	Dumas	Advantage
Takedowns/15min	4.08	1.31	Reese +2.77
Takedown Accuracy	55%	35%	Reese +20%
Takedown Defense	25%	40%	Dumas +15%
Submission Attempts/15min	2.5	0.3	Reese +2.2

Physical Comparison

• Height: Reese 6’4″ (+2″) vs Dumas 6’2″
• Reach: Dumas 79″ (+2″) vs Reese 77″
• Age: Dumas 29 vs Reese 30
• Stance: Reese (Switch) vs Dumas (Orthodox)

Recent Form Analysis

Zachary Reese:

• Decision win over Medina showing improved cardio and wrestling
• Quick KO win over Marquez demonstrating striking power
• KO loss to Brundage exposing chin vulnerability
• Pattern: Alternates between dominant wins and defensive lapses

Sedriques Dumas:

• Decision win over Tiuliulin with improved wrestling
• KO loss to Ruziboev showing striking defense issues
• Decision win over Azaitar with technical striking
• Pattern: More consistent in decision fights, vulnerable to power

Style Matchup Analysis

1. Striking Dynamics:
   • Reese’s higher volume and accuracy vs Dumas’s better defense
   • Reese’s switch stance could pose problems for Dumas’s orthodox defense
   • Both have shown KO vulnerability
2. Grappling Scenarios:
   • Reese’s superior takedown rate and submission attempts
   • Dumas’s better takedown defense but less offensive wrestling
   • Ground exchanges favor Reese’s submission threat
3. Pace and Distance:
   • Reese typically pushes a higher pace
   • Dumas more effective at range using reach
   • Switch stance vs orthodox creates interesting angles

Key Factors

1. Technical Advantages:
   • Reese: Higher striking volume, better wrestling, submission threat
   • Dumas: Better striking defense, reach advantage, takedown defense
2. Physical Edges:
   • Reese: Height advantage, power in both stances
   • Dumas: Reach advantage, slightly younger
3. Vulnerabilities:
   • Reese: Takedown defense, chin concerns
   • Dumas: Lower striking output, submission defense

Prediction

Final Prediction: Zachary Reese via Submission, Round 2 Confidence: 65%

Rationale

Reese’s significantly higher offensive output in both striking and grappling, combined with his submission threat, should prove decisive. While Dumas has shown good striking defense and has a reach advantage, his lower output and historical submission vulnerability match up poorly against Reese’s aggressive style. The key will be Reese surviving early exchanges and implementing his wrestling game to set up the submission.

Risk Factors

1. Reese’s chin vulnerability
2. Dumas’s reach advantage in striking exchanges
3. Both fighters’ inconsistent performances