UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed per Minute
  • Ulanbekov: 3.22
  • Carpenter: 4.56

  • Edge: Carpenter (+1.34)

• Striking Accuracy
  • Ulanbekov: 45%
  • Carpenter: 53%

  • Edge: Carpenter (+8%)

• Striking Defense
  • Ulanbekov: 51%
  • Carpenter: 60%
  • Edge: Carpenter (+9%)

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns per 15 Minutes
  • Ulanbekov: 3.71
  • Carpenter: 2.95

  • Edge: Ulanbekov (+0.76)

• Takedown Accuracy
  • Ulanbekov: 46%
  • Carpenter: 55%
  • Edge: Carpenter (+9%)

Physical Attributes

• Age: Ulanbekov (33) vs Carpenter (28)
• Height: Ulanbekov (5’7″) vs Carpenter (5’6″)
• Reach: Ulanbekov (70″) vs Carpenter (66″)
• Significant reach advantage for Ulanbekov (+4″)

Recent Form Analysis

Tagir Ulanbekov

• Last 3 fights: 2-1 – Strong recent performances with back-to-back submission wins
• Demonstrated improved striking in Durden fight
• Consistent grappling threat with multiple submission attempts per fight
• Only loss came to veteran Tim Elliott in competitive decision

Clayton Carpenter

• Undefeated at 8-0 (2-0 UFC)
• Two impressive submission victories in UFC
• Shows technical striking with high accuracy
• Limited UFC experience but dominant in recent performances
• DWCS victory showed well-rounded skillset

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Phase

• Carpenter has superior striking metrics but shorter reach
• Ulanbekov’s southpaw stance could present challenges
• Carpenter’s higher accuracy may be tested against longer opponent
• Both show improving striking but different approaches

Grappling Phase

• Both fighters regularly attempt submissions
• Ulanbekov has more UFC-level grappling experience
• Carpenter’s takedown defense untested at UFC level
• Ground exchanges likely to be competitive

Key Factors

1. Experience gap heavily favors Ulanbekov
2. Carpenter’s perfect record vs Ulanbekov’s proven UFC competition
3. Reach advantage critical for Ulanbekov’s striking game
4. Youth advantage for Carpenter could impact late-fight cardio

Risk Factors

1. Carpenter’s takedown defense unproven against high-level opposition
2. Ulanbekov’s age and potential decline
3. Limited data on Carpenter against elite competition

Prediction

After careful analysis of both fighters’ strengths, weaknesses, and recent performances, I predict Tagir Ulanbekov to win via Submission in Round 2.

Confidence: 65%

Rationale

1. Ulanbekov’s significant experience advantage against higher-level competition
2. Superior reach and proven grappling at UFC level
3. Recent submission victories show finishing ability
4. Carpenter’s takedown defense vulnerability could be exploited

The key to victory for Ulanbekov will be using his reach advantage to set up takedowns, where his proven submission game can be implemented. While Carpenter shows promise, the experience gap and physical advantages favor Ulanbekov in this matchup.