UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Fighter Comparison

Physical Statistics

	Ricky Turcios	Benardo Sopaj
Age	31	24
Height	5’9″	5’6″
Weight	135 lbs	135 lbs
Reach	71″	66″
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox

Performance Metrics

	Ricky Turcios	Benardo Sopaj
Strikes Landed per Min	4.63	3.06
Striking Accuracy	37%	52%
Strikes Absorbed per Min	3.34	4.56
Striking Defense	55%	53%
Takedowns per 15 min	0.89	3.06
Takedown Accuracy	25%	75%
Takedown Defense	45%	50%
Submission Attempts per 15 min	0.5	0.0

Statistical Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Turcios demonstrates significantly higher output with 4.63 strikes per minute compared to Sopaj’s 3.06
• While Sopaj shows better accuracy (52% vs 37%), Turcios’ volume makes up for the efficiency gap
• Turcios absorbs fewer strikes (3.34 vs 4.56 per minute)
• Defensive percentages are comparable with a slight edge to Turcios (55% vs 53%)

Grappling Assessment

• Sopaj shows superior wrestling credentials with higher takedown frequency (3.06 vs 0.89 per 15 minutes)
• Sopaj’s takedown accuracy is notably better at 75% compared to Turcios’ 25%
• Takedown defense is comparable between both fighters
• Turcios shows more submission activity with 0.5 attempts per 15 minutes while Sopaj has none recorded

Physical Advantages

• Turcios holds significant height advantage (3 inches)
• Critical reach advantage for Turcios (5 inches)
• Age advantage favors Sopaj (24 vs 31)
• No stance disadvantage as both are orthodox

Recent Form Analysis

Ricky Turcios

1. Loss vs Raul Rosas Jr. (SUB, R2)
   • Struggled with younger opponent’s grappling

   • Limited offensive output before submission

2. Win vs Kevin Natividad (Split Decision)

   • Showed effective volume striking

   • Successfully mixed in takedowns

3. Loss vs Aiemann Zahabi (Unanimous Decision)
   • Struggled to implement offensive gameplan
   • Lower than usual strike output
4. Win vs Brady Hiestand (Split Decision)
   • High-volume striking performance
   • Demonstrated ground skills with 2 takedowns

Benardo Sopaj

1. Loss vs Vinicius Oliveira (TKO, R3)
   • Started strong with wrestling
   • Showed defensive vulnerabilities in striking

Limited UFC data available for deeper analysis of Sopaj’s tendencies and patterns.

Style Matchup Analysis

Standing Range

• Turcios’ reach advantage should allow him to control distance
• Higher volume striking favors Turcios
• Sopaj must close distance effectively to implement wrestling

Clinch Phase

• Sopaj’s wrestling credentials suggest advantage in clinch
• Turcios’ height could help with defending takedowns
• Scrambling opportunities favor Turcios’ submission attempts

Ground Phase

• Sopaj’s top control likely stronger
• Turcios shows more submission activity
• Scrambling situations could favor either fighter

Technical Matchup Implications

Advantages for Turcios

1. Superior striking volume
2. Reach advantage for distance control
3. More UFC-level experience
4. Better defensive striking metrics

Advantages for Sopaj

1. Superior wrestling credentials
2. Better takedown accuracy
3. Youth advantage
4. More efficient striking when landing

Fight Prediction

Based on comprehensive analysis of available data, I predict:

• Winner: Ricky Turcios
• Method: Decision
• Confidence: 65%

Path to Victory – Turcios

1. Maintain distance using reach advantage
2. Outpoint Sopaj with volume striking
3. Defend takedowns using height/reach
4. Scramble when taken down
5. Keep high pace to test Sopaj’s cardio

Path to Victory – Sopaj

1. Close distance effectively
2. Secure takedowns against the fence
3. Maintain top control
4. Avoid wild exchanges
5. Control pace to preserve cardio

Risk Factors

For Turcios

• Vulnerability to wrestling
• Sometimes wild/unorthodox style can backfire
• Recent submission loss

For Sopaj

• Limited UFC experience
• Reach disadvantage
• Recent TKO loss showing striking defense issues

Additional Insights

• Cardio could be a deciding factor given Turcios’ pace
• Octagon control likely favors Turcios due to reach
• First two rounds crucial for Sopaj’s wrestling
• Third round likely favors Turcios’ conditioning

Final Strategic Assessment

The fight’s outcome will likely hinge on Turcios’ ability to maintain distance and Sopaj’s success in closing it. Turcios’ experience and physical advantages should allow him to implement his gameplan more effectively over three rounds, leading to a decision victory through superior volume striking and defensive wrestling.