UFC 311 Main Event Analysis: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Makhachev: 2.65 SLpM / 59% Accuracy / 1.54 SApM / 61% Defense
• Tsarukyan: 3.79 SLpM / 48% Accuracy / 1.84 SApM / 53% Defense

Grappling Metrics

• Makhachev: 3.19 TD/15min / 53% Accuracy / 90% Defense / 1.1 Sub/15min
• Tsarukyan: 3.25 TD/15min / 37% Accuracy / 75% Defense / 0.0 Sub/15min

Physical Comparison

• Makhachev: 5’10” / 70″ reach / Southpaw
• Tsarukyan: 5’7″ / 72″ reach / Orthodox

Recent Form Analysis

Islam Makhachev

• Last 3 fights:
• WIN vs Dustin Poirier (SUB, R5)
• WIN vs Alexander Volkanovski (KO/TKO, R1)
• WIN vs Alexander Volkanovski (U-DEC)

Arman Tsarukyan

• Last 3 fights:
• WIN vs Charles Oliveira (S-DEC)
• WIN vs Beneil Dariush (KO/TKO, R1)
• WIN vs Joaquim Silva (KO/TKO, R3)

Style Matchup Analysis

1. Striking Dynamics
   • Makhachev excels in efficient striking (59% accuracy vs Tsarukyan’s 48%)
   • Tsarukyan shows higher volume (3.79 vs 2.65 SLpM)
   • Both fighters display strong striking defense, with Makhachev having the edge
2. Grappling Scenarios
   • Similar takedown frequency (3.19 vs 3.25 per 15 min)
   • Makhachev has superior takedown accuracy (53% vs 37%)

   • Makhachev’s submission threat (1.1 attempts/15min) vs Tsarukyan’s 0.0

3. Previous Meeting Analysis
   • First fight (2019): Makhachev won by Unanimous Decision
   • Both fighters have evolved significantly since then
   • Tsarukyan showed strong takedown defense even in his UFC debut

Technical Analysis

Makhachev’s Advantages

1. Superior submission threat
2. Higher striking accuracy
3. Better takedown defense (90%)
4. Championship experience
5. Proven 5-round conditioning

Tsarukyan’s Advantages

1. Higher striking volume
2. Reach advantage (2″)
3. Youth advantage (5 years younger)
4. Recent momentum
5. Significant technical evolution

Fight Path Analysis

Expect a highly technical battle that will likely go the distance. Makhachev will likely look to control the pace and distance, using his superior defensive wrestling to keep the fight where he wants it. Tsarukyan will need to push the pace and volume while avoiding the tactical traps that Makhachev sets.

The fight will likely be closer than their first meeting, with Tsarukyan’s improved striking and experience making it more competitive. However, Makhachev’s championship experience and proven ability to execute strategic gameplans over five rounds give him a slight edge.

Prediction: Makhachev by Decision (65% confidence)