UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2
Statistical Comparison
Striking Metrics
- Moises: 2.39 SLpM / 40% accuracy / 4.14 absorbed / 54% defense
- Ogden: 3.07 SLpM / 48% accuracy / 3.46 absorbed / 57% defense
- Edge: Ogden has better striking efficiency and defense
Grappling Metrics
- Moises: 1.47 TD/15min / 35% accuracy / 55% defense / 1.3 sub attempts
- Ogden: 2.04 TD/15min / 30% accuracy / 100% defense / 0.8 sub attempts
- Edge: Mixed – Ogden has better TD defense, but Moises more submission-focused
Physical Attributes
- Height: Ogden +2 inches
- Reach: Ogden +2 inches
- Age: Moises -6 years
- Edge: Ogden has size advantages, Moises in athletic prime
Recent Form Analysis
Moises (Last 3)
- Loss vs Klein (Decision)
- Win vs Ramirez (KO R3)
- Loss vs Saint Denis (TKO R2)
Pattern: Inconsistent results, mixing striking and grappling approaches
Ogden (Last 3)
- Win vs Radzhabov (Decision)
- Win vs Holobaugh (Decision)
- NC vs Motta (Originally loss, overturned)
Pattern: Showing improvement, effective wrestling-based approach
Style Matchup Evaluation
Striking Phase
- Both fighters comfortable on feet
- Ogden has reach advantage and better defensive stats
- Moises more vulnerable to strikes but carries power
- Edge slightly to Ogden due to reach and defense
Grappling Phase
- Moises has higher-level submission threat
- Ogden’s perfect TD defense will be tested
- Clinch work likely critical
- Edge to Moises if fight hits ground
Key Factors
- Ogden’s takedown defense vs Moises’ submission game
- Distance management with reach differential
- Cardio and pace – both have gone distance recently
- Experience level disparity – Moises has faced higher level competition
Prediction
Moises by Submission, Round 2
Rationale:
Despite Ogden’s perfect TD defense, Moises has shown ability to find submissions against high-level opponents
Experience advantage in crucial moments
Pattern of catching opponents in transitions
Ogden likely to control early with reach, but Moises should find opening as fight progresses
Confidence: 65%
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