UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Fighter Stats

Christian Rodriguez (11-2-0)

• Age: 27 – Height: 5’7″
• Weight: 145 lbs
• Reach: 71″
• Stance: Orthodox
• UFC Experience: 6 fights

Austin Bashi (13-0-0)

• Age: 23
• Height: 5’6″
• Weight: 145 lbs
• Reach: 70″
• Stance: Orthodox
• UFC Experience: UFC Debut

Statistical Comparison

Striking

Rodriguez shows more proven volume with 3.65 significant strikes landed per minute compared to Bashi’s 2.67, though Bashi has slightly better accuracy (52% vs 47%). Rodriguez also demonstrates superior striking defense at 58% compared to Bashi’s 47%.

Grappling

Bashi shows exceptional wrestling credentials with 18.18 takedowns per 15 minutes and 66% accuracy, significantly higher than Rodriguez’s 1.07 takedowns. However, Rodriguez has proven UFC-level takedown defense at 65%.

Recent Form Analysis

Christian Rodriguez

• Recent loss to Julian Erosa by submission (R1)
• Strong win over Isaac Dulgarian by split decision
• Impressive victories over prospects Cameron Saaiman and Raul Rosas Jr.
• Shows well-rounded skill set with both striking and grappling ability
• Demonstrated good cardio in multiple 3-round fights

Austin Bashi

• Undefeated record of 13-0
• Making UFC debut
• Limited high-level competition exposure
• Strong regional scene performance but untested at UFC level

Style Matchup Analysis

This fight presents an interesting clash between Rodriguez’s proven UFC-level well-rounded game and Bashi’s aggressive wrestling-heavy approach. Rodriguez’s experience against high-level competition and proven takedown defense will be critical factors.

Key Factors

1. Rodriguez’s UFC experience vs Bashi’s debut pressure
2. Striking advantage favors Rodriguez in terms of proven output
3. Bashi’s wrestling credentials vs Rodriguez’s takedown defense
4. Rodriguez’s proven cardio over three rounds
5. Level of competition disparity

Risk Factors

1. Bashi’s undefeated record indicates potential upside
2. Rodriguez’s recent submission loss shows vulnerability
3. Unknown ceiling for Bashi at UFC level

Detailed Fight Projection

Rodriguez via unanimous decision with a 72% confidence rating.

Rodriguez should be able to use his experience and proven striking skills to control the distance and pace of the fight. While Bashi’s wrestling credentials are impressive, Rodriguez has shown strong takedown defense against UFC-caliber opposition. Rodriguez’s ability to handle dynamic wrestlers like Cameron Saaiman suggests he can manage Bashi’s wrestling attack.

The fight is likely to be competitive early as Bashi pushes for takedowns, but Rodriguez’s experience and cardio should allow him to pull away in the later rounds. Expect Rodriguez to use his reach advantage and higher striking output to score points while defending takedowns effectively.