Rinya Nakamura vs Muin Gafurov – Fight Analysis

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Nakamura: 3.53 Strikes Landed per min (54% acc) / 1.38 Strikes Absorbed per min(67% def)
• Gafurov: 3.03 Strikes Landed per min(47% acc) / 2.25 trikes Absorbed per min(50% def)
  Clear advantage to Nakamura in both offensive efficiency and defensive ability

Grappling Metrics

• Nakamura: 3.72 Takedowns/15min (90% acc) / 100% Takedown defense
• Gafurov: 1.95 Takedowns/15min (27% acc) / 68% Takedown defense
  Significant advantage to Nakamura in wrestling efficiency

Physical Attributes

• Both fighters are 5’7″ with 68″ reach
• Nakamura (29) vs Gafurov (28)
• Both southpaw stance
  No significant physical advantages for either fighter

Recent Form Analysis

Rinya Nakamura

• Undefeated at 9-0 – Strong decision victories over Carlos Vera and Fernie Garcia
• Quick KO of Toshiomi Kazama
• Perfect takedown defense and high-efficiency wrestling
• Demonstrated finishing ability with both strikes and submissions

Muin Gafurov

• 1-3 in last four fights
• Recent win over Kyung Ho Kang showed improved striking
• Submission loss to Said Nurmagomedov
• Struggled with takedown defense against superior grapplers
• Shows vulnerability to both striking and grappling attacks

Style Matchup Evaluation

Striking Dynamics

• Nakamura’s superior striking defense and accuracy should give him an edge in exchanges
• Both fighters southpaw eliminates traditional stance advantages
• Nakamura’s power advantage evident in recent finishes

Grappling Scenarios

• Nakamura’s wrestling credentials and statistics suggest dominance
• Gafurov’s poor takedown defense likely to be exploited
• Nakamura’s submission threat adds another layer of danger

Key Factors

1. Nakamura’s superior wrestling credentials and statistics
2. Better defensive metrics across both striking and grappling
3. Undefeated momentum vs Gafurov’s inconsistent recent form
4. Nakamura’s demonstrated finishing ability

Risk Factors

1. Nakamura’s relative inexperience at UFC level
2. Gafurov’s recent win over ranked opponent
3. Both fighters’ southpaw stance could lead to less predictable exchanges

Prediction

Rinya Nakamura via TKO, Round 2

Confidence: 80%

Nakamura should be able to control where this fight takes place with his superior wrestling. His better striking defense and power advantage suggest he can hurt Gafurov on the feet, while his grappling gives him a clear path to victory through ground strikes or submissions. Gafurov’s recent performances and defensive vulnerabilities make him susceptible to Nakamura’s well-rounded attack.

The most likely outcome is Nakamura using his wrestling to wear down Gafurov early, leading to a ground and pound stoppage in the second round. A submission victory is also possible given Gafurov’s recent submission loss and Nakamura’s grappling prowess.