Punahele Soriano vs Uros Medic – Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Soriano: 4.89 strikes/min, 53% accuracy, 3.88 absorbed, 48% defense
• Medic: 5.51 strikes/min, 60% accuracy, 3.18 absorbed, 58% defense
• Clear advantage to Medic in all striking categories

Grappling Metrics

• Soriano: 1.48 TD/15min, 56% accuracy, 37% defense
• Medic: 0.38 TD/15min, 50% accuracy, 55% defense
• Soriano more active in takedowns but vulnerable defensively

Physical Attributes

• Height: Medic +2 inches (6’1″ vs 5’11”)
• Reach: Soriano +1 inch (72″ vs 71″)
• Both southpaw stance
• Both similar age (Medic 31, Soriano 32)

Recent Form Analysis

Soriano’s Last 3:

• WIN vs Baeza (Decision) – Strong wrestling performance, 5 takedowns
• LOSS vs Stoltzfus (Sub R2) – Submission vulnerability exposed
• LOSS vs Kopylov (TKO R2) – Striking defense issues apparent

Medic’s Last 3:

• WIN vs Means (TKO R1) – Explosive striking victory
• LOSS vs Orolbai – (Sub R2) Grappling weakness exposed
• WIN vs Semelsberger (TKO R3) – Demonstrated striking power and cardio

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Phase:

• Medic has superior technical striking with better accuracy
• Both have finishing power but Medic more efficient
• Medic’s height advantage favors his striking at range

Grappling Phase:

• Soriano more likely to initiate wrestling
• Both have shown submission vulnerability
• Wrestling could be key differentiator for Soriano

Key Factors

1. Both fighters vulnerable to submissions
2. Medic’s superior striking technique and defense
3. Soriano’s wrestling advantage could be decisive
4. Both fighters capable of early finishes

Risk Factors

1. Both fighters coming off recent submission losses
2. Cardio questions if fight goes late
3. Southpaw vs southpaw dynamics could affect usual patterns

Prediction

Medic by TKO Round 2

Rationale: While Soriano has the wrestling advantage, Medic’s superior striking metrics and recent form suggest he’ll be able to keep the fight standing where he has clear advantages. Both fighters have shown vulnerability to submissions, but in the striking exchanges, Medic’s superior accuracy and defense should allow him to find openings for his power shots.

Confidence: 70%