Preston Parsons vs Andreas Gustafsson – Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Parsons: 3.50 SLpM, 51% accuracy, 3.12 SApM, 55% defense
• Gustafsson: 4.56 SLpM, 77% accuracy, 3.12 SApM, 43% defense

Key Differential: Gustafsson shows higher volume and accuracy, but potentially concerning defense numbers.

Grappling Metrics

• Parsons: 3.53 TD/15min, 36% accuracy, 71% defense, 2.4 sub attempts/15min
• Gustafsson: 3.6 TD/15min, 66% accuracy, 100% defense, 0.0 sub attempts/15min

Key Differential: Parsons shows more submission threat, while Gustafsson has better takedown efficiency.

Physical Attributes

• Parsons: 5’11”, 71″ reach, Orthodox
• Gustafsson: 6’1″, 73″ reach, Orthodox
• Differential: Gustafsson has 2″ height and reach advantage

Recent Form Analysis

Preston Parsons (Last 3):

• Loss (UD) vs Oban Elliott – Struggled with striking exchanges
• Win (UD) vs Matthew Semelsberger – Strong grappling performance with 7 takedowns
• Loss (SD) vs Trevin Giles – Competitive fight showing improved striking

Andreas Gustafsson:

• Win (TKO) vs Pat Pytlik†
• Impressive finish but against lower-level competition
• Limited UFC data available for comprehensive analysis

Style Matchup Evaluation

Striking Phase:

• Gustafsson’s higher accuracy and volume suggests striking advantage
• Parsons historically vulnerable to power strikes (Rodriguez KO)
• Height/reach advantage favors Gustafsson at range

Grappling Phase:

• Parsons more likely to initiate grappling exchanges
• Gustafsson’s takedown defense untested at UFC level
• Parsons’ submission threats create phase-shifting opportunities

Key Factors

Technical Advantages:

• Gustafsson: Superior striking metrics, reach advantage
• Parsons: More diverse submission game, UFC-level experience

Risk Factors:

• Gustafsson’s UFC inexperience
• Parsons’ vulnerability to strikes
• Limited data on Gustafsson against high-level opposition

Prediction

Gustafsson to win via TKO in Round 2 (65% confidence).

Rationale:

• Superior striking metrics
• Physical advantages align with successful path to victory
• Parsons’ defensive vulnerabilities match Gustafsson’s offensive strengths
• Recent Parsons performances show continued striking defense issues

The key uncertainty is Gustafsson’s ability to translate regional success to UFC level, which affects confidence rating.