Payton Talbott vs Raoni Barcelos – Fight Analysis

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed per Minute: Talbott 8.38 vs Barcelos 5.22
• Striking Accuracy: Talbott 55% vs Barcelos 51%
• Strikes Absorbed per Minute: Talbott 3.57 vs Barcelos 4.79
• Striking Defense: Talbott 51% vs Barcelos 61%

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns per 15 min: Talbott 0.0 vs Barcelos 1.86
• Takedown Accuracy: Talbott 0% vs Barcelos 32%
• Takedown Defense: Talbott 90% vs Barcelos 85%
• Submission Attempts per 15 min: Talbott 0.5 vs Barcelos 0.6

Physical Advantages

• Height: Talbott +3″ (5’10” vs 5’7″)
• Reach: Talbott +3″ (70″ vs 67″)
• Age: Talbott -11 years (26 vs 37)

Recent Form Analysis

Payton Talbott

• Currently undefeated at 9-0
• Last 3 UFC fights:
• KO win over Ghemmouri (R1)
• TKO win over Saaiman (R2)
• Submission win over Aguirre (R3)
• Showing impressive striking power and finishing ability
• 100% finish rate in UFC
• Strong defensive wrestling (90% TD defense)

Raoni Barcelos

• Recent record: 2-3 in last 5
• Last 3 fights:
• Submission win over Quinonez (R3)
• Decision loss to Phillips
• KO loss to Nurmagomedov (R1)
• Mixed results but coming off strong win
• Demonstrated submission skills in last victory
• Has faced higher level competition

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Talbott shows superior volume and power striking
• Switch stance creates unpredictable angles
• Barcelos has better striking defense but absorbs more shots
• Talbott’s height and reach advantage significant for striking
• Both fighters capable of earning knockdowns

Grappling Scenarios

• Barcelos has more varied offensive wrestling
• Talbott’s takedown defense has been excellent
• Both possess submission ability
• Barcelos more likely to initiate grappling exchanges
• Ground battle could be competitive if it goes there

Key Factors

1. Youth vs Experience
2. Talbott’s athleticism and speed vs Barcelos’s veteran savvy
3. Age gap could be crucial in later rounds

4. Barcelos has faced higher level opposition

5. Striking Advantages

   • Talbott’s reach and height significant
   • Higher volume and accuracy from Talbott

   • Barcelos more defensively sound but takes more damage

6. Grappling Dynamic

   • Barcelos’s wrestling could test Talbott’s defense
   • Both capable on ground but prefer striking
   • Takedown defense key for Talbott

Prediction

Payton Talbott via TKO, Round 2

Confidence: 70%

Rationale:

• Talbott’s superior striking metrics and physical advantages
• Recent momentum and finishing ability
• Age and athleticism edge
• Barcelos’s recent inconsistency and durability concerns
• Talbott’s strong takedown defense neutralizes key Barcelos weapon

Risk Factors

1. Barcelos’s experience advantage
2. Talbott’s relative inexperience against veteran opposition
3. Potential for Barcelos to implement wrestling-heavy approach