UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Aliev has notably lower output (2.50 SLpM vs 2.94) but better defense
• Aliev absorbs significantly fewer strikes (0.46 vs 4.54 SApM)
• Similar striking accuracy (51% vs 50%)
• Aliev has better striking defense (59% vs 55%)

Grappling Metrics

• Ashmouz shows higher takedown frequency (4.8 vs 3.06 per 15 min)
• Similar takedown accuracy (Ashmouz 50% vs Aliev 44%)
• Ashmouz has proven takedown defense (60%) while Aliev’s is untested
• Neither fighter shows significant submission activity

Physical Attributes

• Height advantage to Aliev (5’10” vs 5’9″)
• Significant reach advantage to Aliev (72″ vs 69″)
• Age advantage to Aliev (24 vs 29)
• Both fight orthodox stance

Recent Form Analysis

Nurullo Aliev

• Undefeated at 9-0
• Most recent win was a measured decision over Rafael Alves
• Strong control-based approach in UFC debut
• DWCS win showed finishing ability
• Limited but impressive UFC sample size

Yanal Ashmouz

• Recent bounce-back win over Trevor Peek showing improved wrestling
• Loss to Chris Duncan showed striking defense vulnerabilities
• Quick KO win over Sam Patterson demonstrates power
• 8-1 overall record with good finishing rate

Style Matchup Evaluation

Striking Phase

• Aliev’s superior defense and reach advantage favor him at range
• Ashmouz has shown more finishing power but absorbs more damage
• Aliev’s conservative style likely to frustrate aggressive opponents

Grappling Phase

• Both fighters have shown strong wrestling credentials
• Ashmouz’s higher takedown rate but against lower competition
• Aliev’s control-heavy approach matches well with his cardio
• Edge to Aliev in wrestling exchanges based on technique quality

Key Factors

1. Defensive superiority heavily favors Aliev
2. Reach advantage will be significant for Aliev’s style
3. Cardio edge to Aliev based on fighting approach
4. Higher level of competition faced by Aliev

Risk Factors

1. Ashmouz’s proven finishing ability
2. Limited UFC sample size for both fighters
3. Potential for grinding wrestling match affecting scoring

Prediction

Nurullo Aliev by Unanimous Decision

The combination of superior defense, reach advantage, and proven control-based approach should allow Aliev to dictate the pace and location of the fight. While Ashmouz has shown good offensive wrestling and finishing ability, his defensive vulnerabilities and higher strike absorption rate are significant concerns against a technical fighter like Aliev.

Confidence: 75%