UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Fight Overview

This middleweight bout features DWCS graduate Marco Tulio (12-1) against Ihor Potieria (20-7), who is making his middleweight debut after a challenging run at light heavyweight.

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed per Min: Potieria 4.57 vs Tulio 4.42 (slight edge to Potieria)
• Striking Accuracy: Tulio 51% vs Potieria 50% (marginal edge to Tulio)
• Strikes Absorbed per Min: Tulio 2.78 vs Potieria 4.72 (significant defensive advantage for Tulio)
• Striking Defense: Tulio 58% vs Potieria 50% (clear edge to Tulio)

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns per 15 min: Tulio 1.33 vs Potieria 0.77
• Takedown Accuracy: Tulio 20% vs Potieria 18%
• Takedown Defense: Potieria 66% vs Tulio 0%
• Submission Attempts: Tulio 0.7 vs Potieria 0.0

Physical Comparison

• Height: Potieria +3 inches (6’3″ vs 6’0″)
• Reach: Potieria +1 inch (75″ vs 74″)
• Age: Potieria 28 vs Tulio 30

Recent Form Analysis

Marco Tulio

• Won last two fights in DWCS
• Shows power with KO/TKO victory
• Limited UFC-level experience
• Undefeated in recent outings
• Strong defensive metrics

Ihor Potieria

• Lost 4 of last 6 fights
• Multiple KO/TKO losses
• Defensive vulnerabilities apparent
• Moving down from light heavyweight
• Inconsistent performances

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Tulio shows better defensive awareness
• Potieria more vulnerable to strikes
• Both have finishing ability
• Tulio’s tighter defense likely key factor

Grappling Scenarios

• Limited grappling from both fighters
• Tulio shows more submission attempts
• Potieria’s takedown defense could be factor
• Likely to remain standing

Key Factors

1. Tulio’s superior striking defense
2. Potieria’s recent knockout losses
3. Weight class adjustment for Potieria
4. Experience differential favors Potieria
5. Defensive metrics strongly favor Tulio

Risk Factors

1. Tulio’s limited UFC experience
2. Potieria’s size advantage
3. Unknown impact of weight cut for Potieria

Prediction

Marco Tulio by KO/TKO in Round 2

Confidence: 75%

Rationale: Tulio’s superior defensive metrics and Potieria’s recent vulnerability to strikes make this an advantageous matchup for him. Potieria’s move down to middleweight adds uncertainty, but his defensive lapses are likely to remain an issue. Tulio’s power, shown in DWCS, combined with Potieria’s tendency to absorb significant damage, suggests a finishing opportunity will present itself in the middle rounds.