Kevin Holland vs Reinier de Ridder: Fight Analysis

Event: UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Weight Class: Middleweight

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

                    Holland    de Ridder    Differential
SLpM:               4.24      3.24         +1.00 Holland
Str. Accuracy:      49%       57%          +8% de Ridder
Str. Absorbed:      3.21      2.56         +0.65 Holland
Str. Defense:       50%       44%          +6% Holland

Grappling Metrics

                    Holland    de Ridder    Differential
TD Avg/15min:       0.83      6.39         +5.56 de Ridder
TD Accuracy:        38%       38%          Even
TD Defense:         54%       100%         +46% de Ridder
Sub Attempts/15:    0.6       1.3          +0.7 de Ridder

Physical Attributes

                    Holland    de Ridder    Differential
Height:             6'3"      6'4"         +1" de Ridder
Reach:              81"       78"          +3" Holland
Age:                32        34           +2 Holland

Recent Form Analysis

Kevin Holland

• Last 3 fights show mixed results:
• LOSS vs Dolidze (KO/TKO, R1) – Exposed grappling vulnerabilities
• WIN vs Oleksiejczuk (SUB, R1) – Showed improved submission skills
• LOSS vs Page (U-DEC) – Struggled with striking-focused opponent

Reinier de Ridder

• Only UFC fight:
• WIN vs Meerschaert (SUB, R3) – Dominant grappling performance with 5 takedowns

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Phase

• Holland has superior volume and reach advantage
• More diverse striking arsenal with better defense
• Higher knockout potential with better power strikes
• de Ridder uses striking primarily to set up takedowns

Grappling Phase

• Massive advantage to de Ridder in takedown frequency
• Holland’s 54% takedown defense will be severely tested
• de Ridder’s perfect takedown defense suggests superior positional control
• Both fighters capable of submissions but de Ridder more prolific

Key Factors

1. Wrestling Control
2. de Ridder’s takedown rate of 6.39/15min is exceptional
3. Holland’s historically struggled against strong wrestlers
4. Striking Range
5. Holland’s 3″ reach advantage critical for keeping distance
6. Must maintain range to avoid takedown attempts
7. Submission Defense
8. Holland vulnerable to submissions historically
9. de Ridder’s high submission attempt rate concerning for Holland

Prediction

After careful analysis of the statistical matchups and recent performances, this fight presents a clear stylistic clash between Holland’s striking and de Ridder’s grappling. The most likely outcome sees de Ridder implementing his wrestling-heavy game plan successfully against Holland’s historically vulnerable takedown defense.

Predicted Winner: Reinier de Ridder Method: Submission Round: 2 Confidence: 75%

Winning Scenario

de Ridder will likely weather early striking exchanges while looking for takedown opportunities. Once secured, his superior control and submission skills should allow him to work toward a finish. Holland’s recent submission loss to Dolidze suggests this vulnerability remains exploitable.

Risk Factors

1. Holland’s improved grappling shown in recent Oleksiejczuk win
2. Limited UFC sample size for de Ridder
3. Holland’s significant striking power could end fight early