Karol Rosa vs Ailin Perez – Fight Analysis

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Rosa lands significantly more strikes (6.49 vs 2.84 SLpM)
• Similar striking accuracy (Rosa 56% vs Perez 58%)
• Rosa absorbs more strikes (4.91 vs 1.34 SApM)
• Perez has better striking defense (57% vs 49%)

Grappling Metrics

• Perez shows superior takedown frequency (5.36 vs 1.2 per 15 min)
• Similar takedown defense (Rosa 68% vs Perez 66%)
• Perez has higher takedown accuracy (51% vs 46%)
• Perez shows more submission threat (0.3 vs 0.0 attempts/15min)

Physical Attributes

• Both fighters same height (5’5″)
• Rosa slight reach advantage (67″ vs 66″)
• Rosa one year younger (29 vs 30)
• Rosa orthodox vs Perez switch stance

Recent Form Analysis

Karol Rosa:

• Last 3: 2-1 (Win-Loss-Win)
• Strong volume striking in recent wins
• Consistent output but defensive vulnerabilities
• Mixed success against grapplers

Ailin Perez:

• Last 3: 3-0 (Win-Win-Win)
• Dominant wrestling-heavy performances
• Improving striking integration
• Recent submission finish shows development

Style Matchup Analysis

Rosa’s Advantages:

• Higher striking volume
• More UFC experience
• Slight reach advantage
• Better tested against ranked opposition

Perez’s Advantages:

• Superior wrestling
• Better defensive stats
• Submission threat
• Momentum/winning streak

Path to Victory

Rosa:

• Maintain distance with volume striking
• Defend takedowns early
• Work body shots to slow Perez’s wrestling
• Win striking exchanges at range

Perez:

• Pressure forward behind feints
• Time takedowns during Rosa’s combinations
• Control top position
• Look for submission opportunities

Key Factors

1. Wrestling control will be decisive
2. Rosa’s takedown defense crucial early
3. Fight location (cage vs center) important
4. Output vs efficiency in striking exchanges

Prediction

Ailin Perez by Decision Confidence: 65%

Rationale: Perez’s wrestling advantage and current momentum should allow her to control where the fight takes place. While Rosa has the higher striking volume, Perez’s superior takedown game and better defensive metrics suggest she can avoid the worst of the striking exchanges while implementing her gameplan. Rosa’s history of struggling with strong wrestlers also factors into this prediction.

The lower confidence rating reflects Rosa’s experience advantage and ability to potentially stuff takedowns and win striking exchanges. However, Perez’s recent form and style matchup advantages make her the slight favorite.