UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Physical Advantages

• Height: Kareckaite +6″ (5’9″ vs 5’3″)
• Reach: Kareckaite +9″ (71″ vs 62″)
• Age: Comparable (26 vs 28)

Striking Metrics

• Strikes Landed/Min: Kareckaite +6.01 (7.9 vs 1.89)
• Striking Accuracy: Caliari +10% (52% vs 42%)
• Strikes Absorbed/Min: Caliari better (-3.74 differential)
• Strike Defense: Kareckaite +12% (43% vs 31%)

Grappling Metrics

• Takedowns/15min: Caliari +5.32 (6.32 vs 1.0)
• Takedown Accuracy: Equal (66% both)
• Takedown Defense: Kareckaite +86% (86% vs 0%)
• Submission Attempts/15min: Caliari +6.3 (6.3 vs 0.0)

Recent Form Analysis

Kareckaite

• Lost unanimous decision to Dione Barbosa (UFC)
• Won split decision against Carli Judice (DWCS)
• Limited UFC experience but showed high striking volume

Caliari

• Won via submission against Corinne Laframboise (DWCS)
• Making UFC debut
• Strong grappling credentials with early submission win

Style Matchup Analysis

This fight presents a classic striker vs grappler matchup:

Kareckaite’s Advantages

• Significant height and reach advantage
• Higher striking volume
• Strong takedown defense
• More UFC-level experience

Caliari’s Advantages

• Superior grappling metrics
• Higher striking accuracy
• More aggressive submission game
• Momentum from DWCS win

Path to Victory Analysis

Kareckaite

• Use reach advantage to maintain distance
• Deploy high-volume striking
• Defend takedowns using superior TDD
• Work from range with jab and straight punches

Caliari

• Close distance aggressively
• Secure takedowns against the cage
• Work submission game from top position
• Weather early striking exchanges

Risk Factors

Kareckaite

• Coming off UFC loss
• May be hesitant after recent defeat
• Limited ground game shown

Caliari

• UFC debut pressure
• Significant height/reach disadvantage
• Unproven takedown defense
• Limited striking metrics

Prediction

Ernesta Kareckaite via Decision (75% confidence)

Rationale

The physical advantages and UFC experience should prove decisive. While Caliari shows promising grappling, Kareckaite’s takedown defense and striking volume present significant challenges. The height and reach differential will make it difficult for Caliari to close distance consistently.