Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivac – Fight Analysis

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Almeida: 2.46 strikes/min, 64% accuracy, 0.72 absorbed/min, 40% defense
• Spivac: 3.51 strikes/min, 49% accuracy, 3.72 absorbed/min, 50% defense
• Edge: Mixed – Almeida has better accuracy but lower volume, Spivac more active but less precise

Grappling Metrics

• Almeida: 6.85 TD/15min, 59% accuracy, 75% defense, 2.6 sub attempts/15min
• Spivac: 4.63 TD/15min, 65% accuracy, 70% defense, 0.7 sub attempts/15min
• Edge: Almeida – Superior takedown rate and submission threat

Physical Attributes

• Both 6’3″ tall
• Almeida: 79″ reach vs Spivac’s 78″
• Almeida typically lighter (205-235 lbs) vs Spivac (260 lbs)
• Edge: Spivac – Size and mass advantage

Recent Form Analysis

Almeida (Last 3)

• WIN – Alexandr Romanov (SUB R1)
• LOSS – Curtis Blaydes (KO/TKO R2)
• WIN – Derrick Lewis (U-DEC R5)

Spivac (Last 3)

• WIN – Marcin Tybura (SUB R1)
• LOSS – Ciryl Gane (KO/TKO R2)
• WIN – Derrick Lewis (SUB R1)

Style Matchup Analysis

1. Grappling Dynamics
   • Both fighters prefer grappling-heavy approaches
   • Almeida’s higher submission rate (2.6 vs 0.7) indicates greater finishing threat

   • Spivac’s size advantage could make him harder to control

2. Striking Exchanges

   • Neither fighter primarily striker-focused
   • Spivac more willing to engage on feet

   • Almeida more defensive and uses strikes to set up takedowns

3. Pace and Cardio

   • Almeida proven in 5-round fights (Lewis decision)
   • Spivac typically finishes early or shows decline in later rounds
   • Almeida’s lighter weight could provide cardio advantage

Key Factors

1. Technical Advantages
   • Almeida’s superior submission rate
   • Spivac’s weight advantage
   • Both strong in clinch control
2. Recent Performances
   • Both coming off wins
   • Both showed vulnerability to elite strikers (Blaydes, Gane)

   • Common opponent in Lewis – both successful but different methods

3. Critical Variables
   • Early grappling exchanges crucial
   • Size difference impact on takedown effectiveness
   • Gas tank if fight goes late

Prediction

Jailton Almeida via Submission, Round 2

Confidence: 65%

Rationale: While Spivac brings legitimate grappling credentials and a size advantage, Almeida’s superior submission threat and higher-paced grappling attack should prove decisive. Almeida’s proven cardio advantage suggests he can wear down the heavier Spivac if needed, but his submission skills likely create an opening before the later rounds. The loss to Blaydes shows Almeida can be hurt by power, but Spivac isn’t known for explosive striking. Expect Almeida to weather early resistance and find a submission in the second round as Spivac begins to fatigue.

Risk Factors

1. Spivac’s size advantage could negate Almeida’s preferred takedown entries
2. Almeida’s recent KO loss to Blaydes raises durability questions
3. Both fighters capable of controlling position, could lead to stalemate