UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2

Tale of the Tape

                    Dawson      Ferreira
Age:                30          39
Height:             5'10"       5'9"
Weight:             155 lbs     155 lbs
Reach:              72"         74"
Stance:             Switch      Orthodox

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

                    Dawson      Ferreira    Advantage
SLpM:               3.15        5.04        Ferreira +1.89
Str. Acc:          52%         39%         Dawson +13%
Strikes Absorbed:   2.04        3.43        Dawson +1.39
Striking Def:      45%         56%         Ferreira +11%

Grappling Metrics

                    Dawson      Ferreira    Advantage
TD Avg/15min:       3.65        0.96        Dawson +2.69
TD Accuracy:        38%         30%         Dawson +8%
TD Defense:         57%         60%         Ferreira +3%
Sub Attempts/15min: 1.2         0.6         Dawson +0.6

Recent Form Analysis

Grant Dawson (Last 3 Fights):

• WIN vs Rafa Garcia (KO/TKO, R2)
• WIN vs Joe Solecki (U-DEC)
• LOSS vs Bobby Green (KO/TKO, R1)

Diego Ferreira (Last 3 Fights):

• WIN vs Mateusz Rebecki (KO/TKO, R3)
• WIN vs Michael Johnson (KO/TKO, R2)
• LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot (KO/TKO, R2)

Style Matchup Analysis

Dawson’s Advantages:

• Higher volume takedown game
• More active submission threat
• Better striking accuracy
• Youth advantage
• Stronger recent momentum

Ferreira’s Advantages:

• Higher striking volume
• Better striking defense
• Reach advantage
• More KO power in recent fights
• More experienced against high-level competition

Technical Matchup Breakdown

1. Striking Phase
   • Ferreira has the higher volume striking game but with lower accuracy
   • Dawson’s switch stance could create challenges for Ferreira’s orthodox style
   • Ferreira has shown more finishing power in recent fights

   • Dawson’s defense vulnerabilities could be exploited by Ferreira’s volume

2. Grappling Phase

   • Dawson has a clear wrestling advantage with superior takedown rate
   • Ferreira’s takedown defense is only marginally better
   • Dawson’s submission game is more active and threatening

   • Fatigue could impact late-round grappling effectiveness

3. Clinch Work

   • Dawson’s wrestling should give him control in clinch exchanges
   • Ferreira has shown good defensive wrestling against elite competition
   • Age difference could impact clinch stamina

Key Factors & Risk Assessment

Critical Factors:

• Age and durability differential (30 vs 39)
• Striking defense vulnerability for Dawson
• Grappling control vs striking volume dynamic
• Recent finishing abilities for both fighters

Risk Factors:

• Dawson’s chin vulnerability (recent KO loss)
• Ferreira’s age and potential cardio issues
• Style clash could lead to stalemates in certain positions

Fight Prediction

After analyzing both fighters’ metrics and recent performances, I predict Grant Dawson will win via Submission in Round 3.

Confidence: 75%

Path to Victory: Dawson should use his wrestling advantage to control the early rounds while being cautious of Ferreira’s power. As the fight progresses, Ferreira’s age and cardio may become factors, allowing Dawson to find a submission opportunity in the later rounds.

The prediction takes into account:

• Dawson’s superior grappling metrics
• Age advantage and cardio implications
• Recent submission wins against strong competition
• Ferreira’s vulnerability to grappling-based attacks in recent losses

While Ferreira has shown knockout power, Dawson’s wrestling should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. The submission prediction is based on Ferreira’s historical vulnerability to strong grapplers and potential fatigue in later rounds.