UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Welterweight Bout

Executive Summary

A welterweight clash between veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8-0) and the rising Carlston Harris (19-6-0). This matchup pits Ponzinibbio’s high-volume striking against Harris’s powerful, methodical approach.

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

Metric	Ponzinibbio	Harris
Strikes Landed/Min	4.74	3.18
Striking Accuracy	41%	49%
Strikes Absorbed/Min	4.55	2.66
Striking Defense	61%	52%

Grappling Metrics

Metric	Ponzinibbio	Harris
Takedowns/15 Min	0.59	1.97
Takedown Accuracy	32%	29%
Takedown Defense	66%	55%
Submission Attempts/15 Min	0.0	0.8

Physical Comparisons

• Height: Both fighters stand at 6’0″
• Reach: Harris holds a 3″ advantage (76″ vs 73″)
• Age: Harris 37, Ponzinibbio 38
• Stance: Both orthodox

Recent Form Analysis

Santiago Ponzinibbio

• Currently on a 2-fight losing streak
• 1-4 in last five fights
• Recent losses:
  • Split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov (July 2024)
  • KO loss to Kevin Holland (April 2023)
  • Only recent win: KO victory over Alex Morono (Dec 2022)
• Shows declining durability in recent performances
• Still maintains dangerous striking

Carlston Harris

• 2-1 in last three fights
• Recent performances:
  • KO loss to Khaos Williams (May 2024)
  • Submission win over Jeremiah Wells (Aug 2023)
  • Decision win over Jared Gooden (March 2023)
• Demonstrates well-rounded skill set
• Shows finishing ability in both striking and grappling

Style Matchup Analysis

Ponzinibbio’s Advantages

• Higher striking volume
• More UFC experience
• Better defensive wrestling
• Technical boxing combinations
• Proven cardio over 5 rounds

Harris’s Advantages

• Superior reach
• More diverse finishing ability
• Better striking accuracy
• Higher takedown rate
• Submission threat

Technical Analysis

Standing Phase

• Ponzinibbio will need to overcome the reach disadvantage with footwork
• Harris’s power could be significant given Ponzinibbio’s recent KO loss
• Volume vs accuracy dynamic will be crucial
• Edge to Harris in the power exchanges

Clinch Phase

• Harris’s wrestling could be effective against the cage
• Ponzinibbio’s takedown defense will be tested
• Both fighters comfortable in dirty boxing

Ground Phase

• Harris holds a clear submission advantage
• Ponzinibbio’s takedown defense likely keeps it standing
• Ground exchanges could favor Harris if fight goes there

Path to Victory

For Ponzinibbio

1. Maintain high striking volume
2. Use experience to control fight rhythm
3. Defend takedowns to keep it standing
4. Work behind jab to close distance
5. Target legs to slow Harris down

For Harris

1. Utilize reach advantage
2. Look for power counters
3. Mix in takedown threats
4. Target Ponzinibbio’s declining chin
5. Control distance with jab

Prediction

Winner: Carlston Harris
Method: TKO
Round: 2
Confidence: 65%

Rationale

Harris’s combination of power striking, reach advantage, and more diverse skill set matches up well against Ponzinibbio’s recent decline in durability. While Ponzinibbio’s experience and volume striking keep this from being a higher confidence pick, Harris’s ability to finish fights both standing and on the ground provides multiple paths to victory.

Key Factors

1. Harris’s 3-inch reach advantage will be significant
2. Ponzinibbio’s declining durability shown in recent losses
3. Harris’s more diverse finishing ability
4. Stylistic matchup favors Harris’s power over Ponzinibbio’s volume

Risk Factors

1. Ponzinibbio’s extensive UFC experience
2. Harris’s own recent KO loss
3. Ponzinibbio’s ability to outwork opponents over distance

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