UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

1. Statistical Comparison

A. Striking Metrics

Metric	Jose Johnson	Felipe Bunes	Advantage
Strikes Landed/Min	2.22	5.25	Bunes
Striking Accuracy	57%	54%	Johnson
Strikes Absorbed/Min	1.64	8.72	Johnson
Striking Defense	52%	41%	Johnson

B. Grappling Metrics

Metric	Jose Johnson	Felipe Bunes	Advantage
Takedowns/15 Min	0.71	3.15	Bunes
Takedown Accuracy	60%	33%	Johnson
Takedown Defense	38%	0%	Johnson
Submission Attempts/15 Min	0.7	0.0	Johnson

C. Physical Attributes

Attribute	Jose Johnson	Felipe Bunes	Differential
Height	6’0″	5’7″	Johnson +3″
Reach	71″	69″	Johnson +2″
Age	29	35	Johnson -6 years
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox	Even

2. Recent Form Analysis

Jose Johnson

• Last Fight: Loss vs Asu Almabayev (Decision) – Flyweight debut
• Notable Win: Submission victory over Chad Anheliger
• Recent Record: 1-2 in UFC competition
• Performance Trends:
• Shows ability to finish fights when opportunities present
• Adapting to flyweight division
• Demonstrated submission skills against Anheliger
• Struggling against high-level competition

Felipe Bunes

• UFC Debut: Loss vs Joshua Van (KO/TKO)
• Performance Analysis:
• Showed aggressive striking volume
• Defensive vulnerabilities exposed
• Limited UFC experience to evaluate
• Demonstrated takedown ability but poor efficiency

3. Style Matchup Evaluation

Standing Range

• Johnson’s reach advantage critical for distance control
• Bunes’ higher volume vs Johnson’s better defense
• Counter-striking opportunities for Johnson
• Height difference impacts angle creation

Clinch Phase

• Johnson’s height could make him harder to control
• Bunes shows more wrestling initiative
• Johnson’s better takedown defense relevant

Ground Phase

• Johnson’s submission threat adds complexity
• Bunes’ unknown ground defense
• Johnson’s defensive grappling tested recently

4. Technical Matchup Analysis

Johnson’s Advantages

1. Superior reach and height for striking
2. Better defensive metrics
3. Submission threat
4. Youth advantage
5. More UFC experience

Bunes’ Advantages

1. Higher striking volume
2. More frequent takedown attempts
3. Aggressive pace
4. Recent flyweight experience

5. Key Factors

Critical Considerations

1. Johnson’s adaptation to flyweight
2. Bunes’ defensive vulnerabilities
3. Experience disparity
4. Physical advantages favoring Johnson

Risk Factors

1. Johnson’s recent flyweight loss
2. Bunes’ potential volume overwhelming
3. Unknown ceiling for Bunes
4. Johnson’s inconsistent performances

6. Prediction and Confidence Rating

Primary Prediction

• Winner: Jose Johnson
• Method: Decision
• Confidence: 65%

Path to Victory

Johnson projects to use his reach advantage and superior defensive skills to control distance and avoid Bunes’ high-volume attacks. His better takedown defense and submission threat add layers to his game that Bunes must respect. While Bunes shows aggressive output, his defensive vulnerabilities and Johnson’s counter-striking ability should be decisive factors.

Alternative Scenarios

• Johnson submission victory if Bunes overcommits to takedowns
• Bunes victory through overwhelming volume and pace
• Early stoppage less likely given both fighters’ durability

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