UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Matchup Overview

This middleweight bout features two primarily striking-based fighters with contrasting styles. Chris Curtis (31-11-0, 1 NC) brings his orthodox stance and counter-striking approach against Roman Kopylov (13-3-0), a southpaw with impressive finishing power.

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Curtis: 5.76 strikes/min, 51% accuracy, 52% defense
• Kopylov: 4.33 strikes/min, 54% accuracy, 58% defense

Curtis has the higher volume but Kopylov is slightly more accurate and defensively sound. Curtis absorbs more strikes (6.16/min) compared to Kopylov (4.06/min), a concerning differential.

Grappling Metrics

• Curtis: 0.0 TD/15min, 82% TD defense
• Kopylov: 1.2 TD/15min, 87% TD defense

Neither fighter relies heavily on wrestling, though Kopylov has shown more willingness to mix in takedowns. Both have solid takedown defense.

Recent Form Analysis

Chris Curtis

• Lost competitive decision to Brendan Allen (5 rounds)
• Won split decision over Barriault
• NC vs Imavov (accidental clash)
• Lost decision to Gastelum
• KO win over Buckley

Curtis has faced high-level competition but shown some inconsistency, going 1-2-1 NC in his last four. His cardio held up well in the recent 5-round fight despite the loss.

Roman Kopylov

• Won decision over Almeida
• Submission loss to Hernandez
• Two consecutive KO/TKO wins (Fremd, Ribeiro)
• Impressive KO of Soriano

Kopylov has shown improved striking and finishing ability, going 4-1 in his last five with three KO/TKO victories.

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

Curtis excels in close-range exchanges and counter-striking, while Kopylov prefers to work at middle distance with powerful kicks and straight punches. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup could favor Kopylov’s kicking game.

Phase Control

Both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing, though Kopylov has shown more willingness to mix in takedowns when needed. Curtis’s purely striking-based approach could become predictable.

Key Factors

1. Age and Wear: Curtis is 37 with significantly more fights
2. Stance Matchup: Kopylov’s southpaw style could pose problems
3. Power Advantage: Kopylov has shown more consistent finishing ability recently
4. Experience Level: Curtis has faced higher-level competition

Prediction

Kopylov by KO/TKO in Round 2 (65% confidence)

Rationale

While Curtis has more high-level experience, recent trends favor Kopylov. Curtis’s higher strike absorption rate and age-related durability concerns match poorly with Kopylov’s improved striking and finishing ability. The southpaw stance advantage and Curtis’s purely striking-based approach make him more predictable, giving Kopylov clear targets for his power shots.

Risk factors include Curtis’s veteran experience and proven durability in longer fights, but Kopylov’s recent form and more diverse attack paths should prove decisive.