UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

• Almeida: 4.12 strikes/min, 57% accuracy, 2.18 absorbed/min, 47% defense
• Alhassan: 3.62 strikes/min, 49% accuracy, 3.97 absorbed/min, 55% defense

Almeida shows superior volume and accuracy, though his defense is lower. His strike differential (+1.94) is significantly better than Alhassan’s (-0.35).

Grappling Metrics

• Almeida: Limited takedown attempts, 57% TD defense, 0.3 sub attempts/15min
• Alhassan: 0.88 TD/15min, 38% accuracy, 51% TD defense, 0.2 sub attempts/15min

Both fighters show limited grappling statistics, with neither demonstrating dominant wrestling credentials.

Physical Attributes

• Almeida: 6’1″, 74″ reach, Orthodox stance, 36 years old
• Alhassan: 5’10”, 73″ reach, Orthodox stance, 39 years old

Almeida holds height (+3″) and slight reach (+1″) advantages.

Recent Form Analysis

Cesar Almeida

1. WIN vs Potieria – Showed technical striking and control over 3 rounds
2. LOSS vs Kopylov – Close split decision loss showcasing durability
3. WIN vs Budka – Impressive TKO showing finishing ability
4. WIN vs Fernando (DWCS) – Dominant decision showing well-rounded skills

Trend shows solid striking fundamentals and improving fight IQ.

Abdul Razak Alhassan

1. NC vs Brundage – Too brief to assess
2. LOSS vs Pyfer – Submitted in R2 showing grappling vulnerability
3. WIN vs Ribeiro – Explosive KO win demonstrating power
4. LOSS vs Buckley – Struggled with pressure and volume

Recent form shows declining consistency but maintains finishing power.

Style Matchup Analysis

Almeida’s technical striking and superior reach should allow him to control distance against Alhassan’s explosive but sometimes wild attacks. Alhassan’s power remains dangerous early, but his effectiveness drops significantly after the first round.

Key factors:

• Almeida’s superior strike differential and accuracy
• Alhassan’s declining durability and cardio issues
• Physical advantages favoring Almeida 4. Age and mileage difference

Fight Prediction

Almeida should be able to use his reach and technical superiority to avoid Alhassan’s power shots while accumulating damage at range. Expect Almeida to stay disciplined early, weather any initial aggression, then take over as Alhassan tires.

Prediction: Cesar Almeida via Decision (75% confidence)

The most likely path to victory is Almeida using superior footwork and range management to outpoint Alhassan over three rounds. Primary risk factor is Alhassan’s early power, which could change the fight instantly if he lands clean.