Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili

Statistical Comparison

Striking Metrics

Metric	Nurmagomedov	Dvalishvili	Advantage
Strikes Landed/Min	4.46	4.35	Slight Nurmagomedov
Striking Accuracy	63%	42%	Strong Nurmagomedov
Strikes Absorbed/Min	1.36	2.31	Strong Nurmagomedov
Striking Defense	63%	56%	Nurmagomedov

Grappling Metrics

Metric	Nurmagomedov	Dvalishvili	Advantage
Takedowns/15 min	3.98	6.09	Dvalishvili
Takedown Accuracy	50%	36%	Nurmagomedov
Takedown Defense	100%	80%	Strong Nurmagomedov
Submission Attempts/15 min	0.4	0.3	Slight Nurmagomedov

Physical Attributes

Attribute	Nurmagomedov	Dvalishvili	Advantage
Height	5’8″	5’6″	Nurmagomedov
Reach	69″	68″	Slight Nurmagomedov
Age	28	33	Nurmagomedov
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox	Neutral

Recent Form Analysis

Umar Nurmagomedov

• Undefeated record (18-0)
• Last three fights:
• UD win over Sandhagen (high-level, 5-round main event)
• UD win over Almakhan (dominant control)
• KO win over Barcelos (showed striking power)
• Demonstrated well-rounded skillset
• Notable improvements in striking technique
• Strong cardio in 5-round fight against Sandhagen

Merab Dvalishvili

• 9-fight win streak
• Last three fights:
• UD win over O’Malley (high-level striking defense)
• UD win over Cejudo (wrestling dominance)
• UD win over Yan (relentless pressure)
• Exceptional cardio and pace
• Improved striking defense
• Elite wrestling pressure

Style Matchup Analysis

Striking Dynamics

• Nurmagomedov has superior striking accuracy and defense
• Dvalishvili relies on volume and pressure
• Nurmagomedov’s cleaner technique vs Dvalishvili’s chaos
• Distance management favors Nurmagomedov

Grappling Scenarios

• Both fighters highly skilled wrestlers
• Dvalishvili’s higher volume takedown attempts
• Nurmagomedov’s perfect takedown defense
• Clinch exchanges likely crucial
• Nurmagomedov’s superior submission threat

Pace and Control

• Dvalishvili’s relentless pressure
• Nurmagomedov’s superior efficiency
• Battle of cardio and wrestling endurance
• Championship rounds experience for both

Key Factors

1. Wrestling Neutralization
2. Both fighters may struggle to implement takedowns
3. Superior takedown defense could force striking battle
4. Strike Efficiency
5. Nurmagomedov’s accuracy vs Dvalishvili’s volume
6. Clean shots vs pressure striking
7. Cardio and Pace
8. Dvalishvili’s trademark pressure
9. Nurmagomedov’s efficiency
10. Five-round experience for both
11. Technical Advantages
12. Nurmagomedov’s cleaner striking
13. Dvalishvili’s wrestling pressure
14. Clinch control battle

Prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision (48-47) Confidence: 65%

Rationale

The fight presents a fascinating clash between Dvalishvili’s relentless wrestling pressure and Nurmagomedov’s technical superiority. While Dvalishvili will likely push an incredible pace, Nurmagomedov’s superior striking accuracy, takedown defense, and overall efficiency should allow him to control key moments of the fight. The younger fighter’s ability to maintain distance and land the cleaner shots while defending takedowns will be crucial.

Expect a competitive battle where Nurmagomedov’s technical advantages narrowly overcome Dvalishvili’s pressure and volume. The fight will likely see shifts in momentum, but Nurmagomedov’s superior strike accuracy and takedown defense should earn him more clear scoring moments.

Risk Factors:

• Dvalishvili’s incredible cardio and pace
• Potential for grinding clinch battles
• High-level wrestling potentially neutralizing both fighters’ primary weapons