UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2
Statistical Comparison
Striking Metrics
- Strikes Landed per Minute: Prochazka (5.38) vs Hill (7.18)
- Striking Accuracy: Prochazka (55%) vs Hill (54%)
- Strikes Absorbed per Minute: Prochazka (5.59) vs Hill (3.51)
- Striking Defense: Prochazka (39%) vs Hill (46%)
Grappling Metrics
- Takedowns/15min: Prochazka (0.72) vs Hill (0.0)
- Takedown Accuracy: Prochazka (60%) vs Hill (0%)
- Takedown Defense: Prochazka (68%) vs Hill (73%)
- Submission Attempts/15min: Prochazka (0.2) vs Hill (0.0)
Recent Form Analysis
Jiri Prochazka
- Lost to Alex Pereira via R2 KO (June 2024)
- Defeated Aleksandar Rakic via R2 KO (April 2024)
- Lost to Alex Pereira via R2 KO (Nov 2023)
Pattern: Has shown vulnerability to precision strikers, but maintains explosive finishing ability
Jamahal Hill
- Lost to Alex Pereira via R1 KO (April 2024)
- Defeated Glover Teixeira via Decision (Jan 2023)
- Defeated Thiago Santos via R4 KO (Aug 2022)
Pattern: Strong against traditional wrestlers/grapplers, vulnerable to elite strikers
Style Matchup Analysis
Striking Dynamics
- Both fighters are primarily strikers with high output
- Hill has superior defensive metrics and better strike absorption rate
- Prochazka’s unconventional movement could pose timing issues for Hill
- Hill’s southpaw stance adds complexity to the matchup
Grappling Scenarios
- Prochazka has shown more willingness to mix in takedowns
- Both fighters prefer to keep the fight standing
- Neither relies heavily on submission offense
- Hill has slightly better takedown defense
Distance Management
- Prochazka’s reach advantage (80″ vs 79″) is minimal
- Hill typically manages distance better with his jab
- Prochazka tends to close distance aggressively and chaotically
Key Factors
Technical Advantages
- Hill: Better defensive striking metrics
- Hill: More disciplined striking approach
- Prochazka: More diverse offensive toolkit
- Prochazka: Better ground game threat
Physical Advantages
- Hill: Slightly taller
- Prochazka: Marginally longer reach
- Hill: Better defensive movement
- Prochazka: More explosive athleticism
Prediction
Jamahal Hill via TKO, Round 3 Confidence: 65%
Rationale: Hill’s superior strike differential and defensive metrics suggest he can better manage the chaotic exchanges Prochazka initiates. While both fighters have recent losses to Pereira, Hill’s overall striking defense and more methodical approach should allow him to weather early storms and find openings as Prochazka’s aggressive style leaves defensive gaps. The southpaw stance will further complicate timing for Prochazka’s entries.
Path to Victory: Hill needs to maintain disciplined distance management early, avoid Prochazka’s explosive entries, and capitalize on counter-striking opportunities. As the fight progresses, Prochazka’s aggressive style typically creates more openings, giving Hill opportunities to land fight-ending combinations.
Risk factors include Prochazka’s durability and unpredictable attack angles, which could bypass Hill’s usual defensive excellence.